Daily Papers

A world model enables an intelligent agent to imagine, predict, and reason about how the world evolves in response to its actions, and accordingly to plan and strategize. While recent video generation models produce realistic visual sequences, they typically operate in the prompt-to-full-video manner without causal control, interactivity, or long-horizon consistency required for purposeful reasoning. Existing world modeling efforts, on the other hand, often focus on restricted domains (e.g., physical, game, or 3D-scene dynamics) with limited depth and controllability, and struggle to generalize across diverse environments and interaction formats. In this work, we introduce PAN, a general, interactable, and long-horizon world model that predicts future world states through high-quality video simulation conditioned on history and natural language actions. PAN employs the Generative Latent Prediction (GLP) architecture that combines an autoregressive latent dynamics backbone based on a large language model (LLM), which grounds simulation in extensive text-based knowledge and enables conditioning on language-specified actions, with a video diffusion decoder that reconstructs perceptually detailed and temporally coherent visual observations, to achieve a unification between latent space reasoning (imagination) and realizable world dynamics (reality). Trained on large-scale video-action pairs spanning diverse domains, PAN supports open-domain, action-conditioned simulation with coherent, long-term dynamics. Extensive experiments show that PAN achieves strong performance in action-conditioned world simulation, long-horizon forecasting, and simulative reasoning compared to other video generators and world models, taking a step towards general world models that enable predictive simulation of future world states for reasoning and acting.

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) has unified the interface between Large Language Models (LLMs) and external tools, yet a fundamental gap remains in how agents conceptualize the environments within which they operate. Current paradigms are bifurcated: Task-level planning often ignores execution-time dynamics, while reactive execution lacks long-horizon foresight. We present MCP-Cosmos, a framework that infuses generative World Models (WM) into the MCP ecosystem to enable predictive task automation. By unifying three disparate technologies, namely MCP, World Model, and Agent, we demonstrate that a "Bring Your Own World Model" (BYOWM) strategy allows agents to simulate state transitions and refine plans in a latent space before execution. We conducted experiments using two strategies, namely ReAct and SPIRAL with 2 planning models and 3 representative world models over 20+ MCP-Bench tasks. We observed improvements in Agent's environment interaction KPI such as tool success rate and tool parameter accuracy. The framework also offers new metrics such as Execution Quality to generate new insights about the effectiveness of world models compared to baseline.

For robots to robustly understand and interact with the physical world, it is highly beneficial to have a comprehensive representation - modelling geometry, physics, and visual observations - that informs perception, planning, and control algorithms. We propose a novel dual Gaussian-Particle representation that models the physical world while (i) enabling predictive simulation of future states and (ii) allowing online correction from visual observations in a dynamic world. Our representation comprises particles that capture the geometrical aspect of objects in the world and can be used alongside a particle-based physics system to anticipate physically plausible future states. Attached to these particles are 3D Gaussians that render images from any viewpoint through a splatting process thus capturing the visual state. By comparing the predicted and observed images, our approach generates visual forces that correct the particle positions while respecting known physical constraints. By integrating predictive physical modelling with continuous visually-derived corrections, our unified representation reasons about the present and future while synchronizing with reality. Our system runs in realtime at 30Hz using only 3 cameras. We validate our approach on 2D and 3D tracking tasks as well as photometric reconstruction quality. Videos are found at https://embodied-gaussians.github.io/.

Modeling the time-dependent evolution of electron density is essential for understanding quantum mechanical behaviors of condensed matter and enabling predictive simulations in spectroscopy, photochemistry, and ultrafast science. Yet, while machine learning methods have advanced static density prediction, modeling its spatiotemporal dynamics remains largely unexplored. In this work, we introduce a generative framework that combines a 3D convolutional autoencoder with a latent diffusion model (LDM) to learn electron density trajectories from ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations. Our method encodes electron densities into a compact latent space and predicts their future states by sampling from the learned conditional distribution, enabling stable long-horizon rollouts without drift or collapse. To preserve statistical fidelity, we incorporate a scaled Jensen-Shannon divergence regularization that aligns generated and reference density distributions. On AIMD trajectories of liquid lithium at 800 K, our model accurately captures both the spatial correlations and the log-normal-like statistical structure of the density. The proposed framework has the potential to accelerate the simulation of quantum dynamics and overcome key challenges faced by current spatiotemporal machine learning methods as surrogates of quantum mechanical simulators.

Joint contact forces govern implant longevity, cartilage health, and rehabilitation outcomes, shaping who develops osteoarthritis, who recovers well from joint replacement, and who benefits from biomechanical interventions. Yet they remain measurable only invasively, in a few dozen patients with instrumented implants. I present a physics-free pipeline to predict instantaneous 3D hip and knee contact forces from an uncalibrated monocular video: no markers, force plates, electromyography, subject-specific imaging, or musculoskeletal model. Parametric body meshes are recovered per frame, encoded as kinematic features, and decoded into forces by a transformer whose pose stream is adaptively modulated at every layer by body shape, joint, side, activity text, and self-supervised video tokens (V-JEPA 2), unifying hip and knee in a single model. Under leave-one-subject-out cross-validation across 26 patients and 25 activity categories from the in vivo OrthoLoad database, the pipeline matches the accuracy of subject-specific musculoskeletal simulations (0.32 pm 0.08 BW RMSE for hip; 0.23 pm 0.03 BW for knee) and resolves peak force changes smaller than those reported for gait retraining and osteoarthritis progression. Applied zero-shot to an independent instrumented cohort, it rivals or outperforms prior published methods. Even without curated activity labels, video features alone preserve accuracy and enable end-to-end inference on raw footage. Driven by the predictor, a generative motion prior produces biomechanically plausible variants with reduced peak loading, rediscovering strategies from the predictive simulation literature. This pipeline establishes uncalibrated monocular video as a viable modality for estimating joint loading, opening a path toward retrospective analysis of archived clinical recordings, primary-care screening, and at-home rehabilitation tracking.

High-resolution brain imaging can now capture not just synapse locations but their molecular composition, with the cost of such mapping falling exponentially. Yet such ultrastructural data has so far told us little about local neuronal physiology - specifically, the parameters (e.g., synaptic efficacies, local conductances) that govern neural dynamics. We propose to translate molecularly annotated ultrastructure into physiology, introducing the concept of an ultrastructure-to-dynamics compiler: a learned mapping from molecularly annotated ultrastructure to simulator-ready, uncertainty-aware physiological parameters. The requirement is paired training data, with jointly acquired ultrastructure from imaging, and dynamical responses to perturbations from physiological experiments. With this data we can train models that predict local physiology directly from structure. Such a compiler would support biophysical simulations by turning anatomical maps into models of circuit dynamics, shifting structure-to-function from a descriptive program to a predictive one and opening routes to understanding neural computation and forecasting intervention effects.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Aerial robots can enhance construction site productivity by autonomously handling inspection and mapping tasks. However, ensuring safe navigation near human workers remains challenging. While navigation in static environments has been well studied, navigating dynamic environments remains open due to challenges in perception and planning. Payload limitations restrict the robots to using cameras with limited fields of view, resulting in unreliable perception and tracking during collision avoidance. Moreover, the rapidly changing conditions of dynamic environments can quickly make the generated optimal trajectory outdated.To address these challenges, this paper presents a comprehensive navigation framework that integrates perception, intent prediction, and planning. Our perception module detects and tracks dynamic obstacles efficiently and handles tracking loss and occlusion during collision avoidance. The proposed intent prediction module employs a Markov Decision Process (MDP) to forecast potential actions of dynamic obstacles with the possible future trajectories. Finally, a novel intent-based planning algorithm, leveraging model predictive control (MPC), is applied to generate navigation trajectories. Simulation and physical experiments demonstrate that our method improves the safety of navigation by achieving the fewest collisions compared to benchmarks.

Diffusion models have become popular for policy learning in robotics due to their ability to capture high-dimensional and multimodal distributions. However, diffusion policies are stochastic and typically trained offline, limiting their ability to handle unseen and dynamic conditions where novel constraints not represented in the training data must be satisfied. To overcome this limitation, we propose diffusion predictive control with constraints (DPCC), an algorithm for diffusion-based control with explicit state and action constraints that can deviate from those in the training data. DPCC incorporates model-based projections into the denoising process of a trained trajectory diffusion model and uses constraint tightening to account for model mismatch. This allows us to generate constraint-satisfying, dynamically feasible, and goal-reaching trajectories for predictive control. We show through simulations of a robot manipulator that DPCC outperforms existing methods in satisfying novel test-time constraints while maintaining performance on the learned control task.

Most vehicle predictive maintenance systems rely exclusively on internal diagnostic signals and are validated on deterministic synthetic data, limiting the credibility of reported metrics. This paper presents a simulation-validated proof-of-concept framework for V2X-augmented predictive maintenance, integrating on-board sensor streams with external contextual signals -- road quality, weather, traffic density, and driver behaviour -- acquired via V2X communication and third-party APIs, with inference at the vehicle edge. Field validation on instrumented vehicles is identified as the required next step. Three experiments address common shortcomings of prior work. A feature group ablation study shows that V2X contextual features contribute a 2.6-point F1 gain, with full context removal reducing macro F1 from 0.855 to 0.807. On the AI4I 2020 real-world industrial failure dataset (10,000 samples, five failure modes), LightGBM achieves AUC-ROC of 0.973 under 5-fold stratified CV with SMOTE confined to training folds. A noise sensitivity analysis shows macro F1 remains above 0.88 under low noise and degrades to 0.74 under very high noise. SHAP analysis confirms that V2X and engineered interaction features rank among the top 15 predictors. Edge inference is estimated to reduce latency from 3.5s to under 1.0s versus cloud-only processing.

Autonomous systems often must predict the motions of nearby agents from partial and noisy data. This paper asks and answers the question: "can we learn, in real-time, a nonlinear predictive model of another agent's motions?" Our online framework denoises and forecasts such dynamics using a modified sliding-window Hankel Dynamic Mode Decomposition (Hankel-DMD). Partial noisy measurements are embedded into a Hankel matrix, while an associated Page matrix enables singular-value hard thresholding (SVHT) to estimate the effective rank. A Cadzow projection enforces structured low-rank consistency, yielding a denoised trajectory and local noise variance estimates. From this representation, a time-varying Hankel-DMD lifted linear predictor is constructed for multi-step forecasts. The residual analysis provides variance-tracking signals that can support downstream estimators and risk-aware planning. We validate the approach in simulation under Gaussian and heavy-tailed noise, and experimentally on a dynamic crane testbed. Results show that the method achieves stable variance-aware denoising and short-horizon prediction suitable for integration into real-time control frameworks.

Time-lapse fluorescent microscopy (TLFM) combined with predictive mathematical modelling is a powerful tool to study the inherently dynamic processes of life on the single-cell level. Such experiments are costly, complex and labour intensive. A complimentary approach and a step towards in silico experimentation, is to synthesise the imagery itself. Here, we propose Multi-StyleGAN as a descriptive approach to simulate time-lapse fluorescence microscopy imagery of living cells, based on a past experiment. This novel generative adversarial network synthesises a multi-domain sequence of consecutive timesteps. We showcase Multi-StyleGAN on imagery of multiple live yeast cells in microstructured environments and train on a dataset recorded in our laboratory. The simulation captures underlying biophysical factors and time dependencies, such as cell morphology, growth, physical interactions, as well as the intensity of a fluorescent reporter protein. An immediate application is to generate additional training and validation data for feature extraction algorithms or to aid and expedite development of advanced experimental techniques such as online monitoring or control of cells. Code and dataset is available at https://git.rwth-aachen.de/bcs/projects/tp/multi-stylegan.

We provide an algorithm for adaptive legged locomotion via online learning and model predictive control. The algorithm is composed of two interacting modules: model predictive control (MPC) and online learning of residual dynamics. The residual dynamics can represent modeling errors and external disturbances. We are motivated by the future of autonomy where quadrupeds will autonomously perform complex tasks despite real-world unknown uncertainty, such as unknown payload and uneven terrains. The algorithm uses random Fourier features to approximate the residual dynamics in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Then, it employs MPC based on the current learned model of the residual dynamics. The model is updated online in a self-supervised manner using least squares based on the data collected while controlling the quadruped. The algorithm enjoys sublinear dynamic regret, defined as the suboptimality against an optimal clairvoyant controller that knows how the residual dynamics. We validate our algorithm in Gazebo and MuJoCo simulations, where the quadruped aims to track reference trajectories. The Gazebo simulations include constant unknown external forces up to 12g, where g is the gravity vector, in flat terrain, slope terrain with 20degree inclination, and rough terrain with 0.25m height variation. The MuJoCo simulations include time-varying unknown disturbances with payload up to 8~kg and time-varying ground friction coefficients in flat terrain.

Fragmentation is a routine part of communication in 6LoWPAN-based IoT networks, designed to accommodate small frame sizes on constrained wireless links. However, this process introduces a critical vulnerability fragments are typically stored and processed before their legitimacy is confirmed, allowing attackers to exploit this gap with minimal effort. In this work, we explore a defense strategy that takes a more adaptive, behavior-aware approach to this problem. Our system, called Predictive-CSM, introduces a combination of two lightweight mechanisms. The first tracks how each node behaves over time, rewarding consistent and successful interactions while quickly penalizing suspicious or failing patterns. The second checks the integrity of packet fragments using a chained hash, allowing incomplete or manipulated sequences to be caught early, before they can occupy memory or waste processing time. We put this system to the test using a set of targeted attack simulations, including early fragment injection, replayed headers, and flooding with fake data. Across all scenarios, Predictive CSM preserved network delivery and maintained energy efficiency, even under pressure. Rather than relying on heavyweight cryptography or rigid filters, this approach allows constrained de vices to adapt their defenses in real time based on what they observe, not just what they're told. In that way, it offers a step forward for securing fragmented communication in real world IoT systems

Recent advancements in parallel simulation and successful robotic applications are spurring a resurgence in sampling-based model predictive control. To build on this progress, however, the robotics community needs common tooling for prototyping, evaluating, and deploying sampling-based controllers. We introduce Judo, a software package designed to address this need. To facilitate rapid prototyping and evaluation, Judo provides robust implementations of common sampling-based MPC algorithms and standardized benchmark tasks. It further emphasizes usability with simple but extensible interfaces for controller and task definitions, asynchronous execution for straightforward simulation-to-hardware transfer, and a highly customizable interactive GUI for tuning controllers interactively. While written in Python, the software leverages MuJoCo as its physics backend to achieve real-time performance, which we validate across both consumer and server-grade hardware. Code at https://github.com/bdaiinstitute/judo.

Model-predictive control (MPC) is a powerful framework for controlling dynamic systems under constraints, but it remains challenging to deploy on resource-constrained platforms, especially for problems involving conic constraints. To address this, we extend recent work developing fast, structure-exploiting, cached ADMM solvers for embedded applications, to provide support for second-order cones, as well as C++ code generation from Python, MATLAB, and Julia for easy deployment. Microcontroller benchmarks show that our solver provides up to a two-order-of-magnitude speedup, ranging from 10.6x to 142.7x, over state-of-the-art embedded solvers on QP and SOCP problems, and enables us to fit order-of-magnitude larger problems in memory. We validate our solver's deployed performance through simulation and hardware experiments, including conically-constrained trajectory tracking on a 27g Crazyflie quadrotor. To get started with Conic-TinyMPC, visit our documentation, examples, and the open-source codebase at https://tinympc.org.

Liquid electrolytes are critical components of next-generation energy storage systems, enabling fast ion transport, minimizing interfacial resistance, and ensuring electrochemical stability for long-term battery performance. However, measuring electrolyte properties and designing formulations remain experimentally and computationally expensive. In this work, we present a unified framework for designing liquid electrolyte formulation, integrating a forward predictive model with an inverse generative approach. Leveraging both computational and experimental data collected from literature and extensive molecular simulations, we train a predictive model capable of accurately estimating electrolyte properties from ionic conductivity to solvation structure. Our physics-informed architecture preserves permutation invariance and incorporates empirical dependencies on temperature and salt concentration, making it broadly applicable to property prediction tasks across molecular mixtures. Furthermore, we introduce -- to the best of our knowledge -- the first generative machine learning framework for molecular mixture design, demonstrated on electrolyte systems. This framework supports multi-condition-constrained generation, addressing the inherently multi-objective nature of materials design. As a proof of concept, we experimentally identified three liquid electrolytes with both high ionic conductivity and anion-concentrated solvation structure. This unified framework advances data-driven electrolyte design and can be readily extended to other complex chemical systems beyond electrolytes.

Despite the availability of international prize-money competitions, scaled vehicles, and simulation environments, research on autonomous racing and the control of sports cars operating close to the limit of handling has been limited by the high costs of vehicle acquisition and management, as well as the limited physics accuracy of open-source simulators. In this paper, we propose a racing simulation platform based on the simulator Assetto Corsa to test, validate, and benchmark autonomous driving algorithms, including reinforcement learning (RL) and classical Model Predictive Control (MPC), in realistic and challenging scenarios. Our contributions include the development of this simulation platform, several state-of-the-art algorithms tailored to the racing environment, and a comprehensive dataset collected from human drivers. Additionally, we evaluate algorithms in the offline RL setting. All the necessary code (including environment and benchmarks), working examples, datasets, and videos are publicly released and can be found at: https://assetto-corsa-gym.github.io.

Embodied Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning has significantly enhanced Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, yet current methods rely on rigid templates to specify reasoning primitives (e.g., objects in the scene, high-level plans, structural affordances). These templates can force policies to process irrelevant information that distracts from critical action-prediction signals. This creates a bottleneck: without successful policies, we cannot verify reasoning quality; without quality reasoning, we cannot build robust policies. We introduce R&B-EnCoRe, which enables models to bootstrap embodied reasoning from internet-scale knowledge through self-supervised refinement. By treating reasoning as a latent variable within importance-weighted variational inference, models can generate and distill a refined reasoning training dataset of embodiment-specific strategies without external rewards, verifiers, or human annotation. We validate R&B-EnCoRe across manipulation (Franka Panda in simulation, WidowX in hardware), legged navigation (bipedal, wheeled, bicycle, quadruped), and autonomous driving embodiments using various VLA architectures with 1B, 4B, 7B, and 30B parameters. Our approach achieves 28% gains in manipulation success, 101% improvement in navigation scores, and 21% reduction in collision-rate metric over models that indiscriminately reason about all available primitives. R&B-EnCoRe enables models to distill reasoning that is predictive of successful control, bypassing manual annotation engineering while grounding internet-scale knowledge in physical execution.

Algorithmic decision-making has become deeply ingrained in many domains, yet biases in machine learning models can still produce discriminatory outcomes, often harming unprivileged groups. Achieving fair classification is inherently challenging, requiring a careful balance between predictive performance and ethical considerations. We present FairTTTS, a novel post-processing bias mitigation method inspired by the Tree Test Time Simulation (TTTS) method. Originally developed to enhance accuracy and robustness against adversarial inputs through probabilistic decision-path adjustments, TTTS serves as the foundation for FairTTTS. By building on this accuracy-enhancing technique, FairTTTS mitigates bias and improves predictive performance. FairTTTS uses a distance-based heuristic to adjust decisions at protected attribute nodes, ensuring fairness for unprivileged samples. This fairness-oriented adjustment occurs as a post-processing step, allowing FairTTTS to be applied to pre-trained models, diverse datasets, and various fairness metrics without retraining. Extensive evaluation on seven benchmark datasets shows that FairTTTS outperforms traditional methods in fairness improvement, achieving a 20.96% average increase over the baseline compared to 18.78% for related work, and further enhances accuracy by 0.55%. In contrast, competing methods typically reduce accuracy by 0.42%. These results confirm that FairTTTS effectively promotes more equitable decision-making while simultaneously improving predictive performance.

Current efforts to learn scalable policies in robotic manipulation primarily fall into two categories: one focuses on "action," which involves behavior cloning from extensive collections of robotic data, while the other emphasizes "vision," enhancing model generalization by pre-training representations or generative models, also referred to as world models, using large-scale visual datasets. This paper presents an end-to-end paradigm that predicts actions using inverse dynamics models conditioned on the robot's forecasted visual states, named Predictive Inverse Dynamics Models (PIDM). By closing the loop between vision and action, the end-to-end PIDM can be a better scalable action learner. In practice, we use Transformers to process both visual states and actions, naming the model Seer. It is initially pre-trained on large-scale robotic datasets, such as DROID, and can be adapted to realworld scenarios with a little fine-tuning data. Thanks to large-scale, end-to-end training and the synergy between vision and action, Seer significantly outperforms previous methods across both simulation and real-world experiments. It achieves improvements of 13% on the LIBERO-LONG benchmark, 21% on CALVIN ABC-D, and 43% in real-world tasks. Notably, Seer sets a new state-of-the-art on CALVIN ABC-D benchmark, achieving an average length of 4.28, and exhibits superior generalization for novel objects, lighting conditions, and environments under high-intensity disturbances on real-world scenarios. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/OpenRobotLab/Seer/.

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

In this work, we consider the problem of deriving and incorporating accurate dynamic models for model predictive control (MPC) with an application to quadrotor control. MPC relies on precise dynamic models to achieve the desired closed-loop performance. However, the presence of uncertainties in complex systems and the environments they operate in poses a challenge in obtaining sufficiently accurate representations of the system dynamics. In this work, we make use of a deep learning tool, knowledge-based neural ordinary differential equations (KNODE), to augment a model obtained from first principles. The resulting hybrid model encompasses both a nominal first-principle model and a neural network learnt from simulated or real-world experimental data. Using a quadrotor, we benchmark our hybrid model against a state-of-the-art Gaussian Process (GP) model and show that the hybrid model provides more accurate predictions of the quadrotor dynamics and is able to generalize beyond the training data. To improve closed-loop performance, the hybrid model is integrated into a novel MPC framework, known as KNODE-MPC. Results show that the integrated framework achieves 60.2% improvement in simulations and more than 21% in physical experiments, in terms of trajectory tracking performance.

Despite the widespread applications of machine learning force field (MLFF) on solids and small molecules, there is a notable gap in applying MLFF to complex liquid electrolytes. In this work, we introduce BAMBOO (ByteDance AI Molecular Simulation Booster), a novel framework for molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, with a demonstration of its capabilities in the context of liquid electrolytes for lithium batteries. We design a physics-inspired graph equivariant transformer architecture as the backbone of BAMBOO to learn from quantum mechanical simulations. Additionally, we pioneer an ensemble knowledge distillation approach and apply it on MLFFs to improve the stability of MD simulations. Finally, we propose the density alignment algorithm to align BAMBOO with experimental measurements. BAMBOO demonstrates state-of-the-art accuracy in predicting key electrolyte properties such as density, viscosity, and ionic conductivity across various solvents and salt combinations. Our current model, trained on more than 15 chemical species, achieves the average density error of 0.01 g/cm^3 on various compositions compared with experimental data. Moreover, our model demonstrates transferability to molecules not included in the quantum mechanical dataset. We envision this work as paving the way to a "universal MLFF" capable of simulating properties of common organic liquids.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have gained significant traction for simulating complex physical systems, with models like MeshGraphNet demonstrating strong performance on unstructured simulation meshes. However, these models face several limitations, including scalability issues, requirement for meshing at inference, and challenges in handling long-range interactions. In this work, we introduce X-MeshGraphNet, a scalable, multi-scale extension of MeshGraphNet designed to address these challenges. X-MeshGraphNet overcomes the scalability bottleneck by partitioning large graphs and incorporating halo regions that enable seamless message passing across partitions. This, combined with gradient aggregation, ensures that training across partitions is equivalent to processing the entire graph at once. To remove the dependency on simulation meshes, X-MeshGraphNet constructs custom graphs directly from tessellated geometry files (e.g., STLs) by generating point clouds on the surface or volume of the object and connecting k-nearest neighbors. Additionally, our model builds multi-scale graphs by iteratively combining coarse and fine-resolution point clouds, where each level refines the previous, allowing for efficient long-range interactions. Our experiments demonstrate that X-MeshGraphNet maintains the predictive accuracy of full-graph GNNs while significantly improving scalability and flexibility. This approach eliminates the need for time-consuming mesh generation at inference, offering a practical solution for real-time simulation across a wide range of applications. The code for reproducing the results presented in this paper is available through NVIDIA Modulus.

Recent advances in neural surrogate modeling offer the potential for transformative innovations in applications such as automotive aerodynamics. Yet, industrial-scale problems often involve volumetric meshes with cell counts reaching the 100 millions, presenting major scalability challenges. Complex geometries further complicate modeling through intricate surface-volume interactions, while quantities such as vorticity are highly nonlinear and must satisfy strict divergence-free constraints. To address these requirements, we introduce AB-UPT as a novel modeling scheme for building neural surrogates for CFD simulations. AB-UPT is designed to: (i) decouple geometry encoding and prediction tasks via multi-branch operators; (ii) enable scalability to high-resolution outputs via neural simulation in a low-dimensional latent space, coupled with anchored neural field decoders to predict high-fidelity outputs; (iii) enforce physics consistency by a novel divergence-free formulation. We show that AB-UPT yields state-of-the-art predictive accuracy of surface and volume fields on automotive CFD simulations ranging from 33 thousand up to 150 million mesh cells. Furthermore, our anchored neural field architecture enables the enforcement of hard physical constraints on the physics predictions without degradation in performance, exemplified by modeling divergence-free vorticity fields. Notably, the proposed models can be trained on a single GPU in less than a day and predict industry-standard surface and volume fields within seconds. Additionally, we show that the flexible design of our method enables neural simulation from a CAD geometry alone, omitting the need for costly CFD meshing procedures.

Self-supervised pretraining from static structures of drug-like compounds and proteins enable powerful learned feature representations. Learned features demonstrate state of the art performance on a range of predictive tasks including molecular properties, structure generation, and protein-ligand interactions. The majority of approaches are limited by their use of static structures and it remains an open question, how best to use atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to develop more generalized models to improve prediction accuracy for novel molecular structures. We present SURrogate mmGBSA (SurGBSA) as a new modeling approach for MD-based representation learning, which learns a surrogate function of the Molecular Mechanics Generalized Born Surface Area (MMGBSA). We show for the first time the benefits of physics-informed pre-training to train a surrogate MMGBSA model on a collection of over 1.4 million 3D trajectories collected from MD simulations of the CASF-2016 benchmark. SurGBSA demonstrates a dramatic 27,927x speedup versus a traditional physics-based single-point MMGBSA calculation while nearly matching single-point MMGBSA accuracy on the challenging pose ranking problem for identification of the correct top pose (-0.4% difference). Our work advances the development of molecular foundation models by showing model improvements when training on MD simulations. Models, code and training data are made publicly available.

World models learn to predict future states of an environment, enabling planning and mental simulation. Current approaches default to Transformer-based predictors operating in learned latent spaces. This comes at a cost: O(N^2) computation and no explicit spatial inductive bias. This paper asks a foundational question: is self-attention necessary for predictive world modeling, or can alternative computational substrates achieve comparable or superior results? I introduce FluidWorld, a proof-of-concept world model whose predictive dynamics are governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) of reaction-diffusion type. Instead of using a separate neural network predictor, the PDE integration itself produces the future state prediction. In a strictly parameter-matched three-way ablation on unconditional UCF-101 video prediction (64x64, ~800K parameters, identical encoder, decoder, losses, and data), FluidWorld is compared against both a Transformer baseline (self-attention) and a ConvLSTM baseline (convolutional recurrence). While all three models converge to comparable single-step prediction loss, FluidWorld achieves 2x lower reconstruction error, produces representations with 10-15% higher spatial structure preservation and 18-25% more effective dimensionality, and critically maintains coherent multi-step rollouts where both baselines degrade rapidly. All experiments were conducted on a single consumer-grade PC (Intel Core i5, NVIDIA RTX 4070 Ti), without any large-scale compute. These results establish that PDE-based dynamics, which natively provide O(N) spatial complexity, adaptive computation, and global spatial coherence through diffusion, are a viable and parameter-efficient alternative to both attention and convolutional recurrence for world modeling.

Partial Differential Equations are foundational in modeling science and natural systems such as fluid dynamics and weather forecasting. The Latent Evolution of PDEs method is designed to address the computational intensity of classical and deep learning-based PDE solvers by proposing a scalable and efficient alternative. To enhance the efficiency and accuracy of LE-PDE, we incorporate the Mamba model, an advanced machine learning model known for its predictive efficiency and robustness in handling complex dynamic systems with a progressive learning strategy. The LE-PDE was tested on several benchmark problems. The method demonstrated a marked reduction in computational time compared to traditional solvers and standalone deep learning models while maintaining high accuracy in predicting system behavior over time. Our method doubles the inference speed compared to the LE-PDE while retaining the same level of parameter efficiency, making it well-suited for scenarios requiring long-term predictions.

Vegetation monitoring under climate stress requires answering not only how it will evolve given the expected weather, but how it would respond to alternative meteorological conditions. Forecasting models return the expected vegetation state for the observed weather and cannot answer these scenario-conditioned questions, because future weather is fixed to the recorded trajectory. We present VegSim, a geospatial world model for scenario-conditioned vegetation simulation. VegSim infers a latent vegetation state from sparse satellite-derived NDVI histories, past meteorological covariates, and static spatial context, propagates it forward under future weather forcing through recurrent latent dynamics, and decodes predictive NDVI quantiles at each lead time. Because future forcing enters as a controllable input, the same trained model supports probabilistic forecasting under observed weather and conditional simulation under user-defined meteorological forcing, without supervision on scenario responses. We evaluate VegSim on GreenEarthNet across in-distribution data and spatial, temporal, and joint spatial-temporal shift, where it achieves strong point and probabilistic accuracy against time series and Earth observation forecasting baselines while using a compact architecture. We then simulate vegetation responses across Europe under four meteorological scenarios, and in a France summer 2022 case study, obtaining spatially coherent patterns consistent with known sensitivity to temperature and precipitation. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/vegsim.

The integration of machine learning tools into telecom networks, has led to two prevailing paradigms, namely, language-based systems, such as Large Language Models (LLMs), and physics-based systems, such as Digital Twins (DTs). While LLM-based approaches enable flexible interaction and automation, they lack explicit representations of network dynamics. DTs, in contrast, offer a high-fidelity network simulation, but remain scenario-specific and are not designed for learning or decision-making under uncertainty. This gap becomes critical for 6G systems, where decisions must take into account the evolving network states, uncertainty, and the cascading effects of control actions across multiple layers. In this article, we introduce the {Telecom World Model}~(TWM) concept, an architecture for learned, action-conditioned, uncertainty-aware modeling of telecom system dynamics. We decompose the problem into two interacting worlds, a controllable system world consisting of operator-configurable settings and an external world that captures propagation, mobility, traffic, and failures. We propose a three-layer architecture, comprising a field world model for spatial environment prediction, a control/dynamics world model for action-conditioned Key Performance Indicator (KPI) trajectory prediction, and a telecom foundation model layer for intent translation and orchestration. We showcase a comparative analysis between existing paradigms, which demonstrates that TWM jointly provides telecom state grounding, fast action-conditioned roll-outs, calibrated uncertainty, multi-timescale dynamics, model-based planning, and LLM-integrated guardrails. Furthermore, we present a proof-of-concept on network slicing to validate the proposed architecture, showing that the full three-layer pipeline outperforms single-world baselines and accurately predicts KPI trajectories.

The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework has garnered attention in recent econometric literature, yet current approaches implicitly assume a constant Pareto exponent. We introduce novel and robust econometrics to estimate the tails of GaR based on a rigorous theoretical framework and establish validity and effectiveness. Simulations demonstrate consistent outperformance relative to existing alternatives in terms of predictive accuracy. We perform a long-term GaR analysis that provides accurate and insightful predictions, effectively capturing financial anomalies better than current methods.

The increasing availability of large-scale global datasets has generated a demand for scalable spatial prediction methods defined on spherical domains. Classical spatial models that rely on Euclidean distance representations are inappropriate for spherical data because planar projections distort geodesic distances and spatial neighborhood structures, while traditional kriging-based prediction methods are often computationally prohibitive for massive datasets. To address these challenges, we propose a Spherical DeepKriging framework for spatial prediction on S^2. The proposed approach constructs a flexible prediction model by integrating thin-plate spline (TPS) basis functions defined intrinsically on the sphere. Simulation studies and real data analyses are presented to demonstrate the superior predictive performance of the proposed method.

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these techniques is their reliance on substantial amounts of data for retraining. The necessity of acquiring fresh data introduces temporal delays prior to retraining, potentially rendering the models inaccurate if a sudden concept drift occurs in-between two consecutive retrainings. In communication networks, such issue emerges when performing traffic forecasting following a~failure event: post-failure re-routing may induce a drastic shift in distribution and pattern of traffic data, thus requiring a timely model adaptation. In this work, we address this challenge for the problem of traffic forecasting and propose an approach that exploits adaptive learning algorithms, namely, liquid neural networks, which are capable of self-adaptation to abrupt changes in data patterns without requiring any retraining. Through extensive simulations of failure scenarios, we compare the predictive performance of our proposed approach to that of a reference method based on incremental learning. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms incremental learning-based methods in situations where the shifts in traffic patterns are drastic.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

World models, which are predictive representations of how environments evolve under actions, have become a central component of robot learning. They support policy learning, planning, simulation, evaluation, data generation, and have advanced rapidly with the rise of foundation models and large-scale video generation. However, the literature remains fragmented across architectures, functional roles, and embodied application domains. To address this gap, we present a comprehensive review of world models from a robot-learning perspective. We examine how world models are coupled with robot policies, how they serve as learned simulators for reinforcement learning and evaluation, and how robotic video world models have progressed from imagination-based generation to controllable, structured, and foundation-scale formulations. We further connect these ideas to navigation and autonomous driving, and summarize representative datasets, benchmarks, and evaluation protocols. Overall, this survey systematically reviews the rapidly growing literature on world models for robot learning, clarifies key paradigms and applications, and highlights major challenges and future directions for predictive modeling in embodied agents. To facilitate continued access to newly emerging works, benchmarks, and resources, we will maintain and regularly update the accompanying GitHub repository alongside this survey.

Visual-Language-Action models (VLAs) have advanced generalist robot control by mapping multimodal observations and language instructions directly to actions, but sparse action supervision often encourages shortcut mappings rather than representations of dynamics, contact, and task progress. Recent world-action models introduce future prediction through video rollouts, yet pixel-space prediction is a costly and indirect substrate for control, as it may model visual details irrelevant to action generation and introduces substantial training or inference overhead. We present Being-H0.7, a latent world-action model that brings future-aware reasoning into VLA-style policies without generating future frames. Being-H0.7 inserts learnable latent queries between perception and action as a compact reasoning interface, and trains them with a future-informed dual-branch design: a deployable prior branch infers latent states from the current context, while a training-only posterior branch replaces the queries with embeddings from future observations. Jointly aligning the two branches at the latent reasoning space leads the prior branch to reason future-aware, action-useful structure from current observations alone. At inference, Being-H0.7 discards the posterior branch and performs no visual rollout. Experiments across six simulation benchmarks and diverse real-world tasks show that Being-H0.7 achieves state-of-the-art or comparable performance, combining the predictive benefits of world models with the efficiency and deployability of direct VLA policies.

We report on Quantinuum Helios, a 98-qubit trapped-ion quantum processor based on the quantum charge-coupled device (QCCD) architecture. Helios features ^{137}Ba^{+} hyperfine qubits, all-to-all connectivity enabled by a rotatable ion storage ring connecting two quantum operation regions by a junction, speed improvements from parallelized operations, and a new software stack with real-time compilation of dynamic programs. Averaged over all operational zones in the system, we achieve average infidelities of 2.5(1)times10^{-5} for single-qubit gates, 7.9(2)times10^{-4} for two-qubit gates, and 4.8(6)times10^{-4} for state preparation and measurement, none of which are fundamentally limited and likely able to be improved. These component infidelities are predictive of system-level performance in both random Clifford circuits and random circuit sampling, the latter demonstrating that Helios operates well beyond the reach of classical simulation and establishes a new frontier of fidelity and complexity for quantum computers.

Data driven robotics relies upon accurate real-world representations to learn useful policies. Despite our best-efforts, zero-shot sim-to-real transfer is still an unsolved problem, and we often need to allow our agents to explore online to learn useful policies for a given task. For many applications of field robotics online exploration is prohibitively expensive and dangerous, this is especially true in fixed-wing aerial robotics. To address these challenges we offer an intermediary solution for learning in field robotics. We investigate the use of dissimilar platform vehicle for learning and offer a procedure to mimic the behavior of one vehicle with another. We specifically consider the problem of training fixed-wing aircraft, an expensive and dangerous vehicle type, using a multi-rotor host platform. Using a Model Predictive Control approach, we design a controller capable of mimicking another vehicles behavior in both simulation and the real-world.

This article presents a family of Stochastic Cartographic Occupancy Prediction Engines (SCOPEs) that enable mobile robots to predict the future states of complex dynamic environments. They do this by accounting for the motion of the robot itself, the motion of dynamic objects, and the geometry of static objects in the scene, and they generate a range of possible future states of the environment. These prediction engines are software-optimized for real-time performance for navigation in crowded dynamic scenes, achieving up to 89 times faster inference speed and 8 times less memory usage than other state-of-the-art engines. Three simulated and real-world datasets collected by different robot models are used to demonstrate that these proposed prediction algorithms are able to achieve more accurate and robust stochastic prediction performance than other algorithms. Furthermore, a series of simulation and hardware navigation experiments demonstrate that the proposed predictive uncertainty-aware navigation framework with these stochastic prediction engines is able to improve the safe navigation performance of current state-of-the-art model- and learning-based control policies.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

This paper presents two variations of a novel stochastic prediction algorithm that enables mobile robots to accurately and robustly predict the future state of complex dynamic scenes. The proposed algorithm uses a variational autoencoder to predict a range of possible future states of the environment. The algorithm takes full advantage of the motion of the robot itself, the motion of dynamic objects, and the geometry of static objects in the scene to improve prediction accuracy. Three simulated and real-world datasets collected by different robot models are used to demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is able to achieve more accurate and robust prediction performance than other prediction algorithms. Furthermore, a predictive uncertainty-aware planner is proposed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed predictor in simulation and real-world navigation experiments. Implementations are open source at https://github.com/TempleRAIL/SOGMP.

Reinforcement learning has shown strong promise for quadrupedal agile locomotion, even with proprioception-only sensing. In practice, however, sim-to-real gap and reward overfitting in complex terrains can produce policies that fail to transfer, while physical validation remains risky and inefficient. To address these challenges, we introduce a unified framework encompassing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) locomotion policy for robust multi-terrain representation with RoboGauge, a predictive assessment suite that quantifies sim-to-real transferability. The MoE policy employs a gated set of specialist experts to decompose latent terrain and command modeling, achieving superior deployment robustness and generalization via proprioception alone. RoboGauge further provides multi-dimensional proprioception-based metrics via sim-to-sim tests over terrains, difficulty levels, and domain randomizations, enabling reliable MoE policy selection without extensive physical trials. Experiments on a Unitree Go2 demonstrate robust locomotion on unseen challenging terrains, including snow, sand, stairs, slopes, and 30 cm obstacles. In dedicated high-speed tests, the robot reaches 4 m/s and exhibits an emergent narrow-width gait associated with improved stability at high velocity.

General full-wave electromagnetic solvers, such as those utilizing the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method, are computationally demanding for simulating practical GPR problems. We explore the performance of a near-real-time, forward modeling approach for GPR that is based on a machine learning (ML) architecture. To ease the process, we have developed a framework that is capable of generating these ML-based forward solvers automatically. The framework uses an innovative training method that combines a predictive dimensionality reduction technique and a large data set of modeled GPR responses from our FDTD simulation software, gprMax. The forward solver is parameterized for a specific GPR application, but the framework can be extended in a straightforward manner to different electromagnetic problems.

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification but is often limited by challenges of prior elicitation, likelihood misspecification, and computational burden. The martingale posterior (MGP, Fong et al., 2023) offers an alternative, replacing prior-likelihood elicitation with a predictive rule - namely, a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions - for forward data generation. The utility of MGPs depends on the choice of predictive rule, yet the literature has offered few compelling examples. Foundation transformers are well-suited here, as their autoregressive generation mirrors this forward simulation and their general-purpose design enables rich predictive modeling. We introduce TabMGP, an MGP built on TabPFN, a transformer foundation model that is currently state-of-the-art for tabular data. TabMGP produces credible sets with near-nominal coverage and often outperforms both existing MGP constructions and standard Bayes.

Diffusion models are advancing autonomous driving by enabling realistic data synthesis, predictive end-to-end planning, and closed-loop simulation, with a primary focus on temporally consistent generation. However, the generation of large-scale 3D scenes that require spatial coherence remains underexplored. In this paper, we propose X-Scene, a novel framework for large-scale driving scene generation that achieves both geometric intricacy and appearance fidelity, while offering flexible controllability. Specifically, X-Scene supports multi-granular control, including low-level conditions such as user-provided or text-driven layout for detailed scene composition and high-level semantic guidance such as user-intent and LLM-enriched text prompts for efficient customization. To enhance geometrical and visual fidelity, we introduce a unified pipeline that sequentially generates 3D semantic occupancy and the corresponding multiview images, while ensuring alignment between modalities. Additionally, we extend the generated local region into a large-scale scene through consistency-aware scene outpainting, which extrapolates new occupancy and images conditioned on the previously generated area, enhancing spatial continuity and preserving visual coherence. The resulting scenes are lifted into high-quality 3DGS representations, supporting diverse applications such as scene exploration. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that X-Scene significantly advances controllability and fidelity for large-scale driving scene generation, empowering data generation and simulation for autonomous driving.

Density Functional Theory (DFT) underpins much of modern computational chemistry and materials science. Yet, the reliability of DFT-derived predictions of experimentally measurable properties remains fundamentally limited by the need to approximate the unknown exchange-correlation (XC) functional. The traditional paradigm for improving accuracy has relied on increasingly elaborate hand-crafted functional forms. This approach has led to a longstanding trade-off between computational efficiency and accuracy, which remains insufficient for reliable predictive modelling of laboratory experiments. Here we introduce Skala, a deep learning-based XC functional that surpasses state-of-the-art hybrid functionals in accuracy across the main-group chemistry benchmark set GMTKN55 with an error of 2.8 kcal/mol, while retaining the lower computational cost characteristic of semi-local DFT. This demonstrated departure from the historical trade-off between accuracy and efficiency is enabled by learning non-local representations of electronic structure directly from data, bypassing the need for increasingly costly hand-engineered features. Leveraging an unprecedented volume of high-accuracy reference data from wavefunction-based methods, we establish that modern deep learning enables systematically improvable neural exchange-correlation models as training datasets expand, positioning first-principles simulations to become progressively more predictive.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has been an effective approach for improving Large Language Models' reasoning in domains such as coding and mathematics. Here, we apply RLVR methods towards forecasting future real-world events - a challenging task for RL due to the very noisy (and delayed) outcomes involved. Using a novel dataset of recent questions from a prediction market, and accompanying relevant news headlines, we show that a compact (14B) reasoning model can be trained to match or surpass the predictive accuracy of frontier models like o1, while greatly improving probabilistic calibration. The model's performance is also practically meaningful: in a Polymarket trading simulation, we estimate that its bets would have yielded a return on investment of over 10% across all questions in the test set. We detail and compare approaches used in training our model, including augmenting our training-data with synthetic prediction questions, guardrails for learning stability, and median prediction sampling at inference-time.

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen future data. Under this view, we show that deep ensembling (Lakshminarayanan et al., 2017) is a fundamentally mis-specified model class, since it assumes that future data are supported on existing observations only -- a situation rarely encountered in practice. To address this limitation, we propose MixupMP, a method that constructs a more realistic predictive distribution using popular data augmentation techniques. MixupMP operates as a drop-in replacement for deep ensembles, where each ensemble member is trained on a random simulation from this predictive distribution. Grounded in the recently-proposed framework of Martingale posteriors (Fong et al., 2023), MixupMP returns samples from an implicitly defined Bayesian posterior. Our empirical analysis showcases that MixupMP achieves superior predictive performance and uncertainty quantification on various image classification datasets, when compared with existing Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches.

Finding ways to accelerate text input for individuals with profound motor impairments has been a long-standing area of research. Closing the speed gap for augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) devices such as eye-tracking keyboards is important for improving the quality of life for such individuals. Recent advances in neural networks of natural language pose new opportunities for re-thinking strategies and user interfaces for enhanced text-entry for AAC users. In this paper, we present SpeakFaster, consisting of large language models (LLMs) and a co-designed user interface for text entry in a highly-abbreviated form, allowing saving 57% more motor actions than traditional predictive keyboards in offline simulation. A pilot study with 19 non-AAC participants typing on a mobile device by hand demonstrated gains in motor savings in line with the offline simulation, while introducing relatively small effects on overall typing speed. Lab and field testing on two eye-gaze typing users with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) demonstrated text-entry rates 29-60% faster than traditional baselines, due to significant saving of expensive keystrokes achieved through phrase and word predictions from context-aware LLMs. These findings provide a strong foundation for further exploration of substantially-accelerated text communication for motor-impaired users and demonstrate a direction for applying LLMs to text-based user interfaces.

Machine learning models are known to be susceptible to adversarial perturbation. One famous attack is the adversarial patch, a sticker with a particularly crafted pattern that makes the model incorrectly predict the object it is placed on. This attack presents a critical threat to cyber-physical systems that rely on cameras such as autonomous cars. Despite the significance of the problem, conducting research in this setting has been difficult; evaluating attacks and defenses in the real world is exceptionally costly while synthetic data are unrealistic. In this work, we propose the REAP (REalistic Adversarial Patch) benchmark, a digital benchmark that allows the user to evaluate patch attacks on real images, and under real-world conditions. Built on top of the Mapillary Vistas dataset, our benchmark contains over 14,000 traffic signs. Each sign is augmented with a pair of geometric and lighting transformations, which can be used to apply a digitally generated patch realistically onto the sign. Using our benchmark, we perform the first large-scale assessments of adversarial patch attacks under realistic conditions. Our experiments suggest that adversarial patch attacks may present a smaller threat than previously believed and that the success rate of an attack on simpler digital simulations is not predictive of its actual effectiveness in practice. We release our benchmark publicly at https://github.com/wagner-group/reap-benchmark.

Despite a century of empirical memory research, existing AI agent memory systems rely on system-engineering metaphors (virtual-memory paging, flat LLM storage, Zettelkasten notes), none integrating principles of consolidation, forgetting, and reconsolidation. We present ZenBrain, a multi-layer memory architecture integrating fifteen neuroscience models. It implements seven memory layers (working, short-term, episodic, semantic, procedural, core, cross-context) orchestrated by nine foundational algorithms (Two-Factor Synaptic Model, vmPFC-coupled FSRS, Simulation-Selection sleep, Bayesian confidence, and five more) plus six new Predictive Memory Architecture (PMA) components: a four-channel NeuromodulatorEngine, prediction-error-gated ReconsolidationEngine, TripleCopyMemory with divergent decay, four-dimensional PriorityMap with amygdala fast-path, StabilityProtector (NogoA/HDAC3 analogue), and MetacognitiveMonitor for bias detection. The 15-algorithm ablation reveals a cooperative survival network: under stress, 9 of 15 algorithms become individually critical (delta-Q up to -93.7%, Wilcoxon, 10 seeds, alpha=0.005). Simulation-Selection sleep achieves 37% stability improvement (p<0.005) with 47.4% storage reduction. TripleCopyMemory retains S(t)=0.912 at 30 days; PriorityMap reaches NDCG@10=0.997. Multi-layer routing beats a flat single-layer baseline by 20.7% F1 on LoCoMo (p<0.005) and 19.5% on MemoryArena (p=0.015). On LongMemEval-500, ZenBrain holds the highest mean rank on all 12 system-judge cells (4 systems x 3 LLM judges), three-judge mean J=0.545 vs letta=0.485, a-mem=0.414, mem0=0.394; all 9 pair-wise contrasts clear Bonferroni (alpha=0.05/18, min p=6.2e-31, d in [0.18, 0.52]). Under LongMemEval's binary judge, ZenBrain reaches 91.3% of oracle accuracy at 1/106th the per-query token budget. Open-source with 11,589 automated test cases.

We present a novel data-driven simulation environment for modeling traffic in metropolitan street intersections. Using real-world tracking data collected over an extended period of time, we train trajectory forecasting models to learn agent interactions and environmental constraints that are difficult to capture conventionally. Trajectories of new agents are first coarsely generated by sampling from the spatial and temporal generative distributions, then refined using state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting models. The simulation can run either autonomously, or under explicit human control conditioned on the generative distributions. We present the experiments for a variety of model configurations. Under an iterative prediction scheme, the way-point-supervised TrajNet++ model obtained 0.36 Final Displacement Error (FDE) in 20 FPS on an NVIDIA A100 GPU.

Reinforcement learning enhances the reasoning capabilities of large language models but often involves high computational costs due to rollout-intensive optimization. Online prompt selection presents a plausible solution by prioritizing informative prompts to improve training efficiency. However, current methods either depend on costly, exact evaluations or construct prompt-specific predictive models lacking generalization across prompts. This study introduces Generalizable Predictive Prompt Selection (GPS), which performs Bayesian inference towards prompt difficulty using a lightweight generative model trained on the shared optimization history. Intermediate-difficulty prioritization and history-anchored diversity are incorporated into the batch acquisition principle to select informative prompt batches. The small predictive model also generalizes at test-time for efficient computational allocation. Experiments across varied reasoning benchmarks indicate GPS's substantial improvements in training efficiency, final performance, and test-time efficiency over superior baseline methods.

Robust control policy learning for autonomous driving requires training environments to be both physically realistic and computationally scalable, properties that existing simulators provide only in isolation. We introduce Sim2Sim2Sim, a framework that bridges high-fidelity vehicle simulation and scalable reinforcement learning by distilling simulator dynamics into a highly parallelizable learned dynamics model. By training control policies purely within this distilled environment and deploying them back into the high-fidelity source simulator, we demonstrate more efficient policy optimization and reliable transfer under challenging dynamics. We further show that predictive accuracy alone does not fully characterize a learned dynamics model's suitability as a reinforcement learning training environment, which should also be assessed by the quality of the policies it enables.

A World Model is a generative model used to simulate an environment. World Models have proven capable of learning spatial and temporal representations of Reinforcement Learning environments. In some cases, a World Model offers an agent the opportunity to learn entirely inside of its own dream environment. In this work we explore improving the generalization capabilities from dream environments to real environments (Dream2Real). We present a general approach to improve a controller's ability to transfer from a neural network dream environment to reality at little additional cost. These improvements are gained by drawing on inspiration from Domain Randomization, where the basic idea is to randomize as much of a simulator as possible without fundamentally changing the task at hand. Generally, Domain Randomization assumes access to a pre-built simulator with configurable parameters but oftentimes this is not available. By training the World Model using dropout, the dream environment is capable of creating a nearly infinite number of different dream environments. Previous use cases of dropout either do not use dropout at inference time or averages the predictions generated by multiple sampled masks (Monte-Carlo Dropout). Dropout's Dream Land leverages each unique mask to create a diverse set of dream environments. Our experimental results show that Dropout's Dream Land is an effective technique to bridge the reality gap between dream environments and reality. Furthermore, we additionally perform an extensive set of ablation studies.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Video generative models pre-trained on large-scale internet datasets have achieved remarkable success, excelling at producing realistic synthetic videos. However, they often generate clips based on static prompts (e.g., text or images), limiting their ability to model interactive and dynamic scenarios. In this paper, we propose Dynamic World Simulation (DWS), a novel approach to transform pre-trained video generative models into controllable world simulators capable of executing specified action trajectories. To achieve precise alignment between conditioned actions and generated visual changes, we introduce a lightweight, universal action-conditioned module that seamlessly integrates into any existing model. Instead of focusing on complex visual details, we demonstrate that consistent dynamic transition modeling is the key to building powerful world simulators. Building upon this insight, we further introduce a motion-reinforced loss that enhances action controllability by compelling the model to capture dynamic changes more effectively. Experiments demonstrate that DWS can be versatilely applied to both diffusion and autoregressive transformer models, achieving significant improvements in generating action-controllable, dynamically consistent videos across games and robotics domains. Moreover, to facilitate the applications of the learned world simulator in downstream tasks such as model-based reinforcement learning, we propose prioritized imagination to improve sample efficiency, demonstrating competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art methods.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Realistic simulation is critical for applications ranging from robotics to animation. Traditional analytic simulators sometimes struggle to capture sufficiently realistic simulation which can lead to problems including the well known "sim-to-real" gap in robotics. Learned simulators have emerged as an alternative for better capturing real-world physical dynamics, but require access to privileged ground truth physics information such as precise object geometry or particle tracks. Here we propose a method for learning simulators directly from observations. Visual Particle Dynamics (VPD) jointly learns a latent particle-based representation of 3D scenes, a neural simulator of the latent particle dynamics, and a renderer that can produce images of the scene from arbitrary views. VPD learns end to end from posed RGB-D videos and does not require access to privileged information. Unlike existing 2D video prediction models, we show that VPD's 3D structure enables scene editing and long-term predictions. These results pave the way for downstream applications ranging from video editing to robotic planning.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Modern techniques for physical simulations rely on numerical schemes and mesh-refinement methods to address trade-offs between precision and complexity, but these handcrafted solutions are tedious and require high computational power. Data-driven methods based on large-scale machine learning promise high adaptivity by integrating long-range dependencies more directly and efficiently. In this work, we focus on fluid dynamics and address the shortcomings of a large part of the literature, which are based on fixed support for computations and predictions in the form of regular or irregular grids. We propose a novel setup to perform predictions in a continuous spatial and temporal domain while being trained on sparse observations. We formulate the task as a double observation problem and propose a solution with two interlinked dynamical systems defined on, respectively, the sparse positions and the continuous domain, which allows to forecast and interpolate a solution from the initial condition. Our practical implementation involves recurrent GNNs and a spatio-temporal attention observer capable of interpolating the solution at arbitrary locations. Our model not only generalizes to new initial conditions (as standard auto-regressive models do) but also performs evaluation at arbitrary space and time locations. We evaluate on three standard datasets in fluid dynamics and compare to strong baselines, which are outperformed both in classical settings and in the extended new task requiring continuous predictions.

Existing evaluation paradigms for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) face critical limitations. Real-world evaluation is often challenging due to safety concerns and a lack of reproducibility, whereas closed-loop simulation can face insufficient realism or high computational costs. Open-loop evaluation, while being efficient and data-driven, relies on metrics that generally overlook compounding errors. In this paper, we propose pseudo-simulation, a novel paradigm that addresses these limitations. Pseudo-simulation operates on real datasets, similar to open-loop evaluation, but augments them with synthetic observations generated prior to evaluation using 3D Gaussian Splatting. Our key idea is to approximate potential future states the AV might encounter by generating a diverse set of observations that vary in position, heading, and speed. Our method then assigns a higher importance to synthetic observations that best match the AV's likely behavior using a novel proximity-based weighting scheme. This enables evaluating error recovery and the mitigation of causal confusion, as in closed-loop benchmarks, without requiring sequential interactive simulation. We show that pseudo-simulation is better correlated with closed-loop simulations (R^2=0.8) than the best existing open-loop approach (R^2=0.7). We also establish a public leaderboard for the community to benchmark new methodologies with pseudo-simulation. Our code is available at https://github.com/autonomousvision/navsim.

World models (WMs) are intended to serve as internal simulators of the real world that enable agents to understand, anticipate, and act upon complex environments. Existing WM benchmarks remain narrowly focused on next-state prediction and visual fidelity, overlooking the richer simulation capabilities required for intelligent behavior. To address this gap, we introduce WR-Arena, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating WMs along three fundamental dimensions of next world simulation: (i) Action Simulation Fidelity, the ability to interpret and follow semantically meaningful, multi-step instructions and generate diverse counterfactual rollouts; (ii) Long-horizon Forecast, the ability to sustain accurate, coherent, and physically plausible simulations across extended interactions; and (iii) Simulative Reasoning and Planning, the ability to support goal-directed reasoning by simulating, comparing, and selecting among alternative futures in both structured and open-ended environments. We build a task taxonomy and curate diverse datasets designed to probe these capabilities, moving beyond single-turn and perceptual evaluations. Through extensive experiments with state-of-the-art WMs, our results expose a substantial gap between current models and human-level hypothetical reasoning, and establish WR-Arena as both a diagnostic tool and a guideline for advancing next-generation world models capable of robust understanding, forecasting, and purposeful action. The code is available at https://github.com/MBZUAI-IFM/WR-Arena.

Generative models trained on internet data have revolutionized how text, image, and video content can be created. Perhaps the next milestone for generative models is to simulate realistic experience in response to actions taken by humans, robots, and other interactive agents. Applications of a real-world simulator range from controllable content creation in games and movies, to training embodied agents purely in simulation that can be directly deployed in the real world. We explore the possibility of learning a universal simulator (UniSim) of real-world interaction through generative modeling. We first make the important observation that natural datasets available for learning a real-world simulator are often rich along different axes (e.g., abundant objects in image data, densely sampled actions in robotics data, and diverse movements in navigation data). With careful orchestration of diverse datasets, each providing a different aspect of the overall experience, UniSim can emulate how humans and agents interact with the world by simulating the visual outcome of both high-level instructions such as "open the drawer" and low-level controls such as "move by x, y" from otherwise static scenes and objects. There are numerous use cases for such a real-world simulator. As an example, we use UniSim to train both high-level vision-language planners and low-level reinforcement learning policies, each of which exhibit zero-shot real-world transfer after training purely in a learned real-world simulator. We also show that other types of intelligence such as video captioning models can benefit from training with simulated experience in UniSim, opening up even wider applications. Video demos can be found at https://universal-simulator.github.io.

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has been demonstrated to be effective in continuous control tasks. When a world model and a value function are available, planning a sequence of actions ahead of time leads to a better policy. Existing methods typically obtain the value function and the corresponding policy in a model-free manner. However, we find that such an approach struggles with complex tasks, resulting in poor policy learning and inaccurate value estimation. To address this problem, we leverage the strengths of MPC itself. In this work, we introduce Bootstrapped Model Predictive Control (BMPC), a novel algorithm that performs policy learning in a bootstrapped manner. BMPC learns a network policy by imitating an MPC expert, and in turn, uses this policy to guide the MPC process. Combined with model-based TD-learning, our policy learning yields better value estimation and further boosts the efficiency of MPC. We also introduce a lazy reanalyze mechanism, which enables computationally efficient imitation learning. Our method achieves superior performance over prior works on diverse continuous control tasks. In particular, on challenging high-dimensional locomotion tasks, BMPC significantly improves data efficiency while also enhancing asymptotic performance and training stability, with comparable training time and smaller network sizes. Code is available at https://github.com/wertyuilife2/bmpc.

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of discrete events in continuous time, by constructing a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process in which the intensities of multiple event types evolve according to a novel continuous-time LSTM. This generative model allows past events to influence the future in complex and realistic ways, by conditioning future event intensities on the hidden state of a recurrent neural network that has consumed the stream of past events. Our model has desirable qualitative properties. It achieves competitive likelihood and predictive accuracy on real and synthetic datasets, including under missing-data conditions.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

Large language models (LLMs) are revolutionizing education, with LLM-based agents playing a key role in simulating student behavior. A major challenge in student simulation is modeling the diverse learning patterns of students at various cognitive levels. However, current LLMs, typically trained as ``helpful assistants'', target at generating perfect responses. As a result, they struggle to simulate students with diverse cognitive abilities, as they often produce overly advanced answers, missing the natural imperfections that characterize student learning and resulting in unrealistic simulations. To address this issue, we propose a training-free framework for student simulation. We begin by constructing a cognitive prototype for each student using a knowledge graph, which captures their understanding of concepts from past learning records. This prototype is then mapped to new tasks to predict student performance. Next, we simulate student solutions based on these predictions and iteratively refine them using a beam search method to better replicate realistic mistakes. To validate our approach, we construct the Student\_100 dataset, consisting of 100 students working on Python programming and 5,000 learning records. Experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms baseline models, achieving 100% improvement in simulation accuracy.

Cellular automata (CA) provide a minimal formalism for investigating how simple local interactions generate rich spatiotemporal behavior in domains as diverse as traffic flow, ecology, tissue morphogenesis and crystal growth. However, automatically discovering the local update rules for a given phenomenon and using them for quantitative prediction remains challenging. Here we present AutomataGPT, a decoder-only transformer pretrained on around 1 million simulated trajectories that span 100 distinct two-dimensional binary deterministic CA rules on toroidal grids. When evaluated on previously unseen rules drawn from the same CA family, AutomataGPT attains 98.5% perfect one-step forecasts and reconstructs the governing update rule with up to 96% functional (application) accuracy and 82% exact rule-matrix match. These results demonstrate that large-scale pretraining over wider regions of rule space yields substantial generalization in both the forward (state forecasting) and inverse (rule inference) problems, without hand-crafted priors. By showing that transformer models can faithfully infer and execute CA dynamics from data alone, our work lays the groundwork for abstracting real-world dynamical phenomena into data-efficient CA surrogates, opening avenues in biology, tissue engineering, physics and AI-driven scientific discovery.

A world model is an AI system that simulates how an environment evolves under actions, enabling planning through imagined futures rather than reactive perception. Current world models, however, suffer from visual conflation: the mistaken assumption that high-fidelity video generation implies an understanding of physical and causal dynamics. We show that while modern models excel at predicting pixels, they frequently violate invariant constraints, fail under intervention, and break down in safety-critical decision-making. This survey argues that visual realism is an unreliable proxy for world understanding. Instead, effective world models must encode causal structure, respect domain-specific constraints, and remain stable over long horizons. We propose a reframing of world models as actionable simulators rather than visual engines, emphasizing structured 4D interfaces, constraint-aware dynamics, and closed-loop evaluation. Using medical decision-making as an epistemic stress test, where trial-and-error is impossible and errors are irreversible, we demonstrate that a world model's value is determined not by how realistic its rollouts appear, but by its ability to support counterfactual reasoning, intervention planning, and robust long-horizon foresight.

Models that can simulate how environments change in response to actions can be used by agents to plan and act efficiently. We improve on previous environment simulators from high-dimensional pixel observations by introducing recurrent neural networks that are able to make temporally and spatially coherent predictions for hundreds of time-steps into the future. We present an in-depth analysis of the factors affecting performance, providing the most extensive attempt to advance the understanding of the properties of these models. We address the issue of computationally inefficiency with a model that does not need to generate a high-dimensional image at each time-step. We show that our approach can be used to improve exploration and is adaptable to many diverse environments, namely 10 Atari games, a 3D car racing environment, and complex 3D mazes.

We study the learning dynamics of self-predictive learning for reinforcement learning, a family of algorithms that learn representations by minimizing the prediction error of their own future latent representations. Despite its recent empirical success, such algorithms have an apparent defect: trivial representations (such as constants) minimize the prediction error, yet it is obviously undesirable to converge to such solutions. Our central insight is that careful designs of the optimization dynamics are critical to learning meaningful representations. We identify that a faster paced optimization of the predictor and semi-gradient updates on the representation, are crucial to preventing the representation collapse. Then in an idealized setup, we show self-predictive learning dynamics carries out spectral decomposition on the state transition matrix, effectively capturing information of the transition dynamics. Building on the theoretical insights, we propose bidirectional self-predictive learning, a novel self-predictive algorithm that learns two representations simultaneously. We examine the robustness of our theoretical insights with a number of small-scale experiments and showcase the promise of the novel representation learning algorithm with large-scale experiments.

This paper introduces a public dataset of 1.4 million procedurally-generated bicycle designs represented parametrically, as JSON files, and as rasterized images. The dataset is created through the use of a rendering engine which harnesses the BikeCAD software to generate vector graphics from parametric designs. This rendering engine is discussed in the paper and also released publicly alongside the dataset. Though this dataset has numerous applications, a principal motivation is the need to train cross-modal predictive models between parametric and image-based design representations. For example, we demonstrate that a predictive model can be trained to accurately estimate Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) embeddings from a parametric representation directly. This allows similarity relations to be established between parametric bicycle designs and text strings or reference images. Trained predictive models are also made public. The dataset joins the BIKED dataset family which includes thousands of mixed-representation human-designed bicycle models and several datasets quantifying design performance. The code and dataset can be found at: https://github.com/Lyleregenwetter/BIKED_multimodal/tree/main

Simulation is an integral part in the process of developing autonomous vehicles and advantageous for training, validation, and verification of driving functions. Even though simulations come with a series of benefits compared to real-world experiments, various challenges still prevent virtual testing from entirely replacing physical test-drives. Our work provides an overview of these challenges with regard to different aspects and types of simulation and subsumes current trends to overcome them. We cover aspects around perception-, behavior- and content-realism as well as general hurdles in the domain of simulation. Among others, we observe a trend of data-driven, generative approaches and high-fidelity data synthesis to increasingly replace model-based simulation.

Predictive coding networks are neuroscience-inspired models with roots in both Bayesian statistics and neuroscience. Training such models, however, is quite inefficient and unstable. In this work, we show how by simply changing the temporal scheduling of the update rule for the synaptic weights leads to an algorithm that is much more efficient and stable than the original one, and has theoretical guarantees in terms of convergence. The proposed algorithm, that we call incremental predictive coding (iPC) is also more biologically plausible than the original one, as it it fully automatic. In an extensive set of experiments, we show that iPC constantly performs better than the original formulation on a large number of benchmarks for image classification, as well as for the training of both conditional and masked language models, in terms of test accuracy, efficiency, and convergence with respect to a large set of hyperparameters.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

AI agents are being increasingly deployed in dynamic, open-ended environments that require adapting to new information as it arrives. To efficiently measure this capability for realistic use-cases, we propose building grounded simulations that replay real-world events in the order they occurred. We build FutureSim, where agents forecast world events beyond their knowledge cutoff while interacting with a chronological replay of the world: real news articles arriving and questions resolving over the simulated period. We evaluate frontier agents in their native harness, testing their ability to predict world events over a three-month period from January to March 2026. FutureSim reveals a clear separation in their capabilities, with the best agent's accuracy being 25%, and many having worse Brier skill score than making no prediction at all. Through careful ablations, we show how FutureSim offers a realistic setting to study emerging research directions like long-horizon test-time adaptation, search, memory, and reasoning about uncertainty. Overall, we hope our benchmark design paves the way to measure AI progress on open-ended adaptation spanning long time-horizons in the real world.

Physical interactions follow a long-tailed distribution: a set of common and regular interactions dominates human experience and visual data, while a broad spectrum of rare and irregular interactions remains underrepresented. Although recent visual world models, including image and video generation models, achieve impressive realism on existing benchmarks, they primarily focus on simulating common physical interactions. This raises a central question: Do current visual world models internalize and generalize physical principles? In this work, we introduce Tailor-Bench, a benchmark that challenges world models to simulate irregular physical interactions. To enable systematic evaluation, we design three scenario modes that progressively challenge model reasoning: Regular scenarios reflect common tool-task pairs, Unconventional scenarios replace conventional tools with attribute-compatible substitutes to test affordance generalization, and Impossible scenarios introduce attribute-violating tools to probe constraint awareness. Additionally, we design two complementary settings under a unified evaluation protocol: predictive generation requires inferring outcomes without guidance, while descriptive generation specifies the target outcome for faithful realization. Our experimental results reveal a clear long-tail gap in physical world modeling: performance degrades from Regular to Unconventional and Impossible scenarios, indicating limited generalization beyond common interactions. Failure analysis further shows that models rely on superficial visual patterns: image models fail to realize correct state changes, while video models further suffer from temporal inconsistencies.

Long-term user engagement (LTE) optimization in sequential recommender systems (SRS) is shown to be suited by reinforcement learning (RL) which finds a policy to maximize long-term rewards. Meanwhile, RL has its shortcomings, particularly requiring a large number of online samples for exploration, which is risky in real-world applications. One of the appealing ways to avoid the risk is to build a simulator and learn the optimal recommendation policy in the simulator. In LTE optimization, the simulator is to simulate multiple users' daily feedback for given recommendations. However, building a user simulator with no reality-gap, i.e., can predict user's feedback exactly, is unrealistic because the users' reaction patterns are complex and historical logs for each user are limited, which might mislead the simulator-based recommendation policy. In this paper, we present a practical simulator-based recommender policy training approach, Simulation-to-Recommendation (Sim2Rec) to handle the reality-gap problem for LTE optimization. Specifically, Sim2Rec introduces a simulator set to generate various possibilities of user behavior patterns, then trains an environment-parameter extractor to recognize users' behavior patterns in the simulators. Finally, a context-aware policy is trained to make the optimal decisions on all of the variants of the users based on the inferred environment-parameters. The policy is transferable to unseen environments (e.g., the real world) directly as it has learned to recognize all various user behavior patterns and to make the correct decisions based on the inferred environment-parameters. Experiments are conducted in synthetic environments and a real-world large-scale ride-hailing platform, DidiChuxing. The results show that Sim2Rec achieves significant performance improvement, and produces robust recommendations in unseen environments.

Simulating realistic behaviors of traffic agents is pivotal for efficiently validating the safety of autonomous driving systems. Existing data-driven simulators primarily use an encoder-decoder architecture to encode the historical trajectories before decoding the future. However, the heterogeneity between encoders and decoders complicates the models, and the manual separation of historical and future trajectories leads to low data utilization. Given these limitations, we propose BehaviorGPT, a homogeneous and fully autoregressive Transformer designed to simulate the sequential behavior of multiple agents. Crucially, our approach discards the traditional separation between "history" and "future" by modeling each time step as the "current" one for motion generation, leading to a simpler, more parameter- and data-efficient agent simulator. We further introduce the Next-Patch Prediction Paradigm (NP3) to mitigate the negative effects of autoregressive modeling, in which models are trained to reason at the patch level of trajectories and capture long-range spatial-temporal interactions. Despite having merely 3M model parameters, BehaviorGPT won first place in the 2024 Waymo Open Sim Agents Challenge with a realism score of 0.7473 and a minADE score of 1.4147, demonstrating its exceptional performance in traffic agent simulation.

Using offline datasets to evaluate conversational agents often fails to cover rare scenarios or to support testing new policies. This has motivated the use of controllable user simulators for targeted, counterfactual evaluation, typically implemented by prompting or fine-tuning large language models. In this work, we formalize controllable simulation as a causal inference problem. By bridging natural language evaluation with off-policy evaluation methodology, we show that the standard practice of training simulators via supervised fine-tuning on post-hoc trajectory labels yields a structurally biased model. Specifically, these labels are inextricably coupled to the data-generating behavior policy, injecting a look-ahead bias that breaks causal consistency. Furthermore, we prove that under policy shift this failure causes the variance of evaluation metrics to explode geometrically, a phenomenon we term controllability collapse. To restore causal consistency, we establish theoretical conditions for accurate simulation and propose practical training mitigations: a priori controls, step-wise dynamic controls, and direct policy-conditioned learning. Empirical evaluation confirms that while standard global controls distort conversational distributions and collapse behavioral diversity, our causally grounded simulators eliminate look-ahead bias, preserve natural variance, and exhibit robust zero-shot generalization to unseen agent behaviors.

Generative models aim to simulate realistic effects of various actions across different contexts, from text generation to visual effects. Despite significant efforts to build real-world simulators, the application of generative models to virtual worlds, like financial markets, remains under-explored. In financial markets, generative models can simulate complex market effects of participants with various behaviors, enabling interaction under different market conditions, and training strategies without financial risk. This simulation relies on the finest structured data in financial market like orders thus building the finest realistic simulation. We propose Large Market Model (LMM), an order-level generative foundation model, for financial market simulation, akin to language modeling in the digital world. Our financial Market Simulation engine (MarS), powered by LMM, addresses the domain-specific need for realistic, interactive and controllable order generation. Key observations include LMM's strong scalability across data size and model complexity, and MarS's robust and practicable realism in controlled generation with market impact. We showcase MarS as a forecast tool, detection system, analysis platform, and agent training environment, thus demonstrating MarS's "paradigm shift" potential for a variety of financial applications. We release the code of MarS at https://github.com/microsoft/MarS/.

Machine learning approaches to spatiotemporal physical systems have primarily focused on next-frame prediction, with the goal of learning an accurate emulator for the system's evolution in time. However, these emulators are computationally expensive to train and are subject to performance pitfalls, such as compounding errors during autoregressive rollout. In this work, we take a different perspective and look at scientific tasks further downstream of predicting the next frame, such as estimation of a system's governing physical parameters. Accuracy on these tasks offers a uniquely quantifiable glimpse into the physical relevance of the representations of these models. We evaluate the effectiveness of general-purpose self-supervised methods in learning physics-grounded representations that are useful for downstream scientific tasks. Surprisingly, we find that not all methods designed for physical modeling outperform generic self-supervised learning methods on these tasks, and methods that learn in the latent space (e.g., joint embedding predictive architectures, or JEPAs) outperform those optimizing pixel-level prediction objectives. Code is available at https://github.com/helenqu/physical-representation-learning.

World models paired with model predictive control (MPC) can be trained offline on large-scale datasets of expert trajectories and enable generalization to a wide range of planning tasks at inference time. Compared to traditional MPC procedures, which rely on slow search algorithms or on iteratively solving optimization problems exactly, gradient-based planning offers a computationally efficient alternative. However, the performance of gradient-based planning has thus far lagged behind that of other approaches. In this paper, we propose improved methods for training world models that enable efficient gradient-based planning. We begin with the observation that although a world model is trained on a next-state prediction objective, it is used at test-time to instead estimate a sequence of actions. The goal of our work is to close this train-test gap. To that end, we propose train-time data synthesis techniques that enable significantly improved gradient-based planning with existing world models. At test time, our approach outperforms or matches the classical gradient-free cross-entropy method (CEM) across a variety of object manipulation and navigation tasks in 10% of the time budget.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

Recent advances have witnessed the effectiveness of reinforcement learning (RL) finetuning in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). The optimization process often requires numerous iterations to achieve satisfactory performance, resulting in high computational costs due to the need for frequent prompt evaluations under intensive LLM interactions and repeated policy updates. Appropriate online prompt selection methods reduce iteration steps by prioritizing informative prompts during training, while the pipeline's reliance on exhaustive prompt evaluation and subset selection for optimization still incurs substantial computational overhead due to frequent LLM inference calls. Distinguished from these direct evaluate-then-select schemes, this work investigates iterative approximate evaluation for arbitrary prompts and introduces Model Predictive Prompt Selection (MoPPS), a Bayesian risk-predictive framework that online estimates prompt difficulty without requiring costly LLM interactions. Technically, MoPPS models each prompt's success rate as a latent variable, performs streaming Bayesian inference, and employs posterior sampling in a constructed multi-armed bandit machine, enabling sample efficient and adaptive prompt selection. Extensive experiments across mathematics, planning, and vision-based geometry tasks show that MoPPS reliably predicts prompt difficulty and accelerates training with significantly reduced LLM rollouts.

Recent advances in world models have shown promise for modeling future dynamics of environmental states, enabling agents to reason and act without accessing real environments. Current methods mainly perform single-step or fixed-horizon rollouts, leaving their potential for complex task planning under-exploited. We propose Imagine-then-Plan (ITP), a unified framework for agent learning via lookahead imagination, where an agent's policy model interacts with the learned world model, yielding multi-step ``imagined'' trajectories. Since the imagination horizon may vary by tasks and stages, we introduce a novel adaptive lookahead mechanism by trading off the ultimate goal and task progress. The resulting imagined trajectories provide rich signals about future consequences, such as achieved progress and potential conflicts, which are fused with current observations, formulating a partially observable and imaginable Markov decision process to guide policy learning. We instantiate ITP with both training-free and reinforcement-trained variants. Extensive experiments across representative agent benchmarks demonstrate that ITP significantly outperforms competitive baselines. Further analyses validate that our adaptive lookahead largely enhances agents' reasoning capability, providing valuable insights into addressing broader, complex tasks.

Learning predictive models from observations using deep neural networks (DNNs) is a promising new approach to many real-world planning and control problems. However, common DNNs are too unstructured for effective planning, and current control methods typically rely on extensive sampling or local gradient descent. In this paper, we propose a new framework for integrated model learning and predictive control that is amenable to efficient optimization algorithms. Specifically, we start with a ReLU neural model of the system dynamics and, with minimal losses in prediction accuracy, we gradually sparsify it by removing redundant neurons. This discrete sparsification process is approximated as a continuous problem, enabling an end-to-end optimization of both the model architecture and the weight parameters. The sparsified model is subsequently used by a mixed-integer predictive controller, which represents the neuron activations as binary variables and employs efficient branch-and-bound algorithms. Our framework is applicable to a wide variety of DNNs, from simple multilayer perceptrons to complex graph neural dynamics. It can efficiently handle tasks involving complicated contact dynamics, such as object pushing, compositional object sorting, and manipulation of deformable objects. Numerical and hardware experiments show that, despite the aggressive sparsification, our framework can deliver better closed-loop performance than existing state-of-the-art methods.

Modeling human behavior in urban environments is fundamental for social science, behavioral studies, and urban planning. Prior work often rely on rigid, hand-crafted rules, limiting their ability to simulate nuanced intentions, plans, and adaptive behaviors. Addressing these challenges, we envision an urban simulator (CitySim), capitalizing on breakthroughs in human-level intelligence exhibited by large language models. In CitySim, agents generate realistic daily schedules using a recursive value-driven approach that balances mandatory activities, personal habits, and situational factors. To enable long-term, lifelike simulations, we endow agents with beliefs, long-term goals, and spatial memory for navigation. CitySim exhibits closer alignment with real humans than prior work, both at micro and macro levels. Additionally, we conduct insightful experiments by modeling tens of thousands of agents and evaluating their collective behaviors under various real-world scenarios, including estimating crowd density, predicting place popularity, and assessing well-being. Our results highlight CitySim as a scalable, flexible testbed for understanding and forecasting urban phenomena.

Useful social science theories predict behavior across settings. However, applying a theory to make predictions in new settings is challenging: rarely can it be done without ad hoc modifications to account for setting-specific factors. We argue that AI agents put in simulations of those novel settings offer an alternative for applying theory, requiring minimal or no modifications. We present an approach for building such "general" agents that use theory-grounded natural language instructions, existing empirical data, and knowledge acquired by the underlying AI during training. To demonstrate the approach in settings where no data from that data-generating process exists--as is often the case in applied prediction problems--we design a heterogeneous population of 883,320 novel games. AI agents are constructed using human data from a small set of conceptually related but structurally distinct "seed" games. In preregistered experiments, on average, agents predict initial human play in a random sample of 1,500 games from the population better than (i) a cognitive hierarchy model, (ii) game-theoretic equilibria, and (iii) out-of-the-box agents. For a small set of separate novel games, these simulations predict responses from a new sample of human subjects better even than the most plausibly relevant published human data.

This study examines the integration of Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) with Spiking Neural Networks (SNN). While CPC learns the predictive structure of data to generate meaningful representations, SNN mimics the computational processes of biological neural systems over time. In this study, the goal is to develop a predictive coding model with greater biological plausibility by processing inputs and outputs in a spike-based system. The proposed model was tested on the MNIST dataset and achieved a high classification rate in distinguishing positive sequential samples from non-sequential negative samples. The study demonstrates that CPC can be effectively combined with SNN, showing that an SNN trained for classification tasks can also function as an encoding mechanism. Project codes and detailed results can be accessed on our GitHub page: https://github.com/vnd-ogrenme/ongorusel-kodlama/tree/main/CPC_SNN

While self-supervised pretraining has reduced vision systems' reliance on synthetic data, simulation remains an indispensable tool for closed-loop optimization and rigorous out-of-distribution (OOD) evaluation. However, modern simulation platforms often present steep technical barriers, requiring extensive expertise in computer graphics and game development. In this work, we present LychSim, a highly controllable and interactive simulation framework built upon Unreal Engine 5 to bridge this gap. LychSim is built around three key designs: (1) a streamlined Python API that abstracts away underlying engine complexities; (2) a procedural data pipeline capable of generating diverse, high-fidelity environments with varying out-of-distribution (OOD) visual challenges, paired with rich 2D and 3D ground truths; and (3) a native integration of the Model Context Protocol (MCP) that transforms the simulator into a dynamic, closed-loop playground for reasoning agentic LLMs. We further annotate scene-level procedural rules and object-level pose alignments to enable semantically aligned 3D ground truths and automated scene modification. We demonstrate LychSim's capability across multiple downstream applications, including serving as a synthetic data engine, powering reinforcement learning-based adversarial examiners, and facilitating interactive, language-driven scene layout generation. To benefit the broader vision community, LychSim will be made publicly available, including full source code and various data annotations.

Prediction is an appealing objective for self-supervised learning of behavioral skills, particularly for autonomous robots. However, effectively utilizing predictive models for control, especially with raw image inputs, poses a number of major challenges. How should the predictions be used? What happens when they are inaccurate? In this paper, we tackle these questions by proposing a method for learning robotic skills from raw image observations, using only autonomously collected experience. We show that even an imperfect model can complete complex tasks if it can continuously retry, but this requires the model to not lose track of the objective (e.g., the object of interest). To enable a robot to continuously retry a task, we devise a self-supervised algorithm for learning image registration, which can keep track of objects of interest for the duration of the trial. We demonstrate that this idea can be combined with a video-prediction based controller to enable complex behaviors to be learned from scratch using only raw visual inputs, including grasping, repositioning objects, and non-prehensile manipulation. Our real-world experiments demonstrate that a model trained with 160 robot hours of autonomously collected, unlabeled data is able to successfully perform complex manipulation tasks with a wide range of objects not seen during training.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

Achieving fully autonomous driving systems requires learning rational decisions in a wide span of scenarios, including safety-critical and out-of-distribution ones. However, such cases are underrepresented in real-world corpus collected by human experts. To complement for the lack of data diversity, we introduce a novel and scalable simulation framework capable of synthesizing massive unseen states upon existing driving logs. Our pipeline utilizes advanced neural rendering with a reactive environment to generate high-fidelity multi-view observations controlled by the perturbed ego trajectory. Furthermore, we develop a pseudo-expert trajectory generation mechanism for these newly simulated states to provide action supervision. Upon the synthesized data, we find that a simple co-training strategy on both real-world and simulated samples can lead to significant improvements in both robustness and generalization for various planning methods on challenging real-world benchmarks, up to +6.8 EPDMS on navhard and +2.9 on navtest. More importantly, such policy improvement scales smoothly by increasing simulation data only, even without extra real-world data streaming in. We further reveal several crucial findings of such a sim-real learning system, which we term SimScale, including the design of pseudo-experts and the scaling properties for different policy architectures. Our simulation data and code would be released.

Agents operating in complex software environments benefit from reasoning about the consequences of their actions, as even a single incorrect user interface (UI) operation can derail long, artifact-preserving workflows. This challenge is particularly acute for computer-using scenarios, where real execution does not support counterfactual exploration, making large-scale trial-and-error learning and planning impractical despite the environment being fully digital and deterministic. We introduce the Computer-Using World Model (CUWM), a world model for desktop software that predicts the next UI state given the current state and a candidate action. CUWM adopts a two-stage factorization of UI dynamics: it first predicts a textual description of agent-relevant state changes, and then realizes these changes visually to synthesize the next screenshot. CUWM is trained on offline UI transitions collected from agents interacting with real Microsoft Office applications, and further refined with a lightweight reinforcement learning stage that aligns textual transition predictions with the structural requirements of computer-using environments. We evaluate CUWM via test-time action search, where a frozen agent uses the world model to simulate and compare candidate actions before execution. Across a range of Office tasks, world-model-guided test-time scaling improves decision quality and execution robustness.

Simulators offer the possibility of safe, low-cost development of self-driving systems. However, current driving simulators exhibit na\"ive behavior models for background traffic. Hand-tuned scenarios are typically added during simulation to induce safety-critical situations. An alternative approach is to adversarially perturb the background traffic trajectories. In this paper, we study this approach to safety-critical driving scenario generation using the CARLA simulator. We use a kinematic bicycle model as a proxy to the simulator's true dynamics and observe that gradients through this proxy model are sufficient for optimizing the background traffic trajectories. Based on this finding, we propose KING, which generates safety-critical driving scenarios with a 20% higher success rate than black-box optimization. By solving the scenarios generated by KING using a privileged rule-based expert algorithm, we obtain training data for an imitation learning policy. After fine-tuning on this new data, we show that the policy becomes better at avoiding collisions. Importantly, our generated data leads to reduced collisions on both held-out scenarios generated via KING as well as traditional hand-crafted scenarios, demonstrating improved robustness.

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

We introduce anticipation: a method for constructing a controllable generative model of a temporal point process (the event process) conditioned asynchronously on realizations of a second, correlated process (the control process). We achieve this by interleaving sequences of events and controls, such that controls appear following stopping times in the event sequence. This work is motivated by problems arising in the control of symbolic music generation. We focus on infilling control tasks, whereby the controls are a subset of the events themselves, and conditional generation completes a sequence of events given the fixed control events. We train anticipatory infilling models using the large and diverse Lakh MIDI music dataset. These models match the performance of autoregressive models for prompted music generation, with the additional capability to perform infilling control tasks, including accompaniment. Human evaluators report that an anticipatory model produces accompaniments with similar musicality to even music composed by humans over a 20-second clip.

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we show that LSTMs outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and its timestamp. Next, we show how to use models for predicting the next task in order to predict the full continuation of a running case. Finally, we apply the same approach to predict the remaining time, and show that this approach outperforms existing tailor-made methods.

Motion behaviour is driven by several factors -- goals, presence and actions of neighbouring agents, social relations, physical and social norms, the environment with its variable characteristics, and further. Most factors are not directly observable and must be modelled from context. Trajectory prediction, is thus a hard problem, and has seen increasing attention from researchers in the recent years. Prediction of motion, in application, must be realistic, diverse and controllable. In spite of increasing focus on multimodal trajectory generation, most methods still lack means for explicitly controlling different modes of the data generation. Further, most endeavours invest heavily in designing special mechanisms to learn the interactions in latent space. We present Conditional Speed GAN (CSG), that allows controlled generation of diverse and socially acceptable trajectories, based on user controlled speed. During prediction, CSG forecasts future speed from latent space and conditions its generation based on it. CSG is comparable to state-of-the-art GAN methods in terms of the benchmark distance metrics, while being simple and useful for simulation and data augmentation for different contexts such as fast or slow paced environments. Additionally, we compare the effect of different aggregation mechanisms and show that a naive approach of concatenation works comparable to its attention and pooling alternatives.

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

Social network simulation plays a crucial role in addressing various challenges within social science. It offers extensive applications such as state prediction, phenomena explanation, and policy-making support, among others. In this work, we harness the formidable human-like capabilities exhibited by large language models (LLMs) in sensing, reasoning, and behaving, and utilize these qualities to construct the S^3 system (short for Social network Simulation System). Adhering to the widely employed agent-based simulation paradigm, we employ prompt engineering and prompt tuning techniques to ensure that the agent's behavior closely emulates that of a genuine human within the social network. Specifically, we simulate three pivotal aspects: emotion, attitude, and interaction behaviors. By endowing the agent in the system with the ability to perceive the informational environment and emulate human actions, we observe the emergence of population-level phenomena, including the propagation of information, attitudes, and emotions. We conduct an evaluation encompassing two levels of simulation, employing real-world social network data. Encouragingly, the results demonstrate promising accuracy. This work represents an initial step in the realm of social network simulation empowered by LLM-based agents. We anticipate that our endeavors will serve as a source of inspiration for the development of simulation systems within, but not limited to, social science.

Recent advancements in predictive models have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in predicting the future state of objects and scenes. However, the lack of categorization based on inherent characteristics continues to hinder the progress of predictive model development. Additionally, existing benchmarks are unable to effectively evaluate higher-capability, highly embodied predictive models from an embodied perspective. In this work, we classify the functionalities of predictive models into a hierarchy and take the first step in evaluating World Simulators by proposing a dual evaluation framework called WorldSimBench. WorldSimBench includes Explicit Perceptual Evaluation and Implicit Manipulative Evaluation, encompassing human preference assessments from the visual perspective and action-level evaluations in embodied tasks, covering three representative embodied scenarios: Open-Ended Embodied Environment, Autonomous, Driving, and Robot Manipulation. In the Explicit Perceptual Evaluation, we introduce the HF-Embodied Dataset, a video assessment dataset based on fine-grained human feedback, which we use to train a Human Preference Evaluator that aligns with human perception and explicitly assesses the visual fidelity of World Simulators. In the Implicit Manipulative Evaluation, we assess the video-action consistency of World Simulators by evaluating whether the generated situation-aware video can be accurately translated into the correct control signals in dynamic environments. Our comprehensive evaluation offers key insights that can drive further innovation in video generation models, positioning World Simulators as a pivotal advancement toward embodied artificial intelligence.

Accurately anticipating how complex, diverse scenes will evolve requires models that represent uncertainty, simulate along extended interaction chains, and efficiently explore many plausible futures. Yet most existing approaches rely on dense video or latent-space prediction, expending substantial capacity on dense appearance rather than on the underlying sparse trajectories of points in the scene. This makes large-scale exploration of future hypotheses costly and limits performance when long-horizon, multi-modal motion is essential. We address this by formulating the prediction of open-set future scene dynamics as step-wise inference over sparse point trajectories. Our autoregressive diffusion model advances these trajectories through short, locally predictable transitions, explicitly modeling the growth of uncertainty over time. This dynamics-centric representation enables fast rollout of thousands of diverse futures from a single image, optionally guided by initial constraints on motion, while maintaining physical plausibility and long-range coherence. We further introduce OWM, a benchmark for open-set motion prediction based on diverse in-the-wild videos, to evaluate accuracy and variability of predicted trajectory distributions under real-world uncertainty. Our method matches or surpasses dense simulators in predictive accuracy while achieving orders-of-magnitude higher sampling speed, making open-set future prediction both scalable and practical. Project page: http://compvis.github.io/myriad.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Simulation agents are essential for designing and testing systems that interact with humans, such as autonomous vehicles (AVs). These agents serve various purposes, from benchmarking AV performance to stress-testing the system's limits, but all use cases share a key requirement: reliability. A simulation agent should behave as intended by the designer, minimizing unintended actions like collisions that can compromise the signal-to-noise ratio of analyses. As a foundation for reliable sim agents, we propose scaling self-play to thousands of scenarios on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset under semi-realistic limits on human perception and control. Training from scratch on a single GPU, our agents nearly solve the full training set within a day. They generalize effectively to unseen test scenes, achieving a 99.8% goal completion rate with less than 0.8% combined collision and off-road incidents across 10,000 held-out scenarios. Beyond in-distribution generalization, our agents show partial robustness to out-of-distribution scenes and can be fine-tuned in minutes to reach near-perfect performance in those cases. Demonstrations of agent behaviors can be found at this link. We open-source both the pre-trained agents and the complete code base. Demonstrations of agent behaviors can be found at https://sites.google.com/view/reliable-sim-agents.

Advancements in high-computing devices increase the necessity for improved and new understanding and development of smart manufacturing factories. Discrete-event models with simulators have been shown to be critical to architect, designing, building, and operating the manufacturing of semiconductor chips. The diffusion, implantation, and lithography machines have intricate processes due to their feedforward and feedback connectivity. The dataset collected from simulations of the factory models holds the promise of generating valuable machine-learning models. As surrogate data-based models, their executions are highly efficient compared to the physics-based counterpart models. For the development of surrogate models, it is beneficial to have publicly available benchmark simulation models that are grounded in factory models that have concise structures and accurate behaviors. Hence, in this research, a dataset is devised and constructed based on a benchmark model of an Intel semiconductor fabrication factory. The model is formalized using the Parallel Discrete-Event System Specification and executed using the DEVS-Suite simulator. The time series dataset is constructed using discrete-event time trajectories. This dataset is further analyzed and used to develop baseline univariate and multivariate machine learning models. The dataset can also be utilized in the machine learning community for behavioral analysis based on formalized and scalable component-based discrete-event models and simulations.

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for creating statistically rigorous uncertainty sets/intervals for the predictions of such models. Critically, the sets are valid in a distribution-free sense: they possess explicit, non-asymptotic guarantees even without distributional assumptions or model assumptions. One can use conformal prediction with any pre-trained model, such as a neural network, to produce sets that are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. It is easy-to-understand, easy-to-use, and general, applying naturally to problems arising in the fields of computer vision, natural language processing, deep reinforcement learning, and so on. This hands-on introduction is aimed to provide the reader a working understanding of conformal prediction and related distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques with one self-contained document. We lead the reader through practical theory for and examples of conformal prediction and describe its extensions to complex machine learning tasks involving structured outputs, distribution shift, time-series, outliers, models that abstain, and more. Throughout, there are many explanatory illustrations, examples, and code samples in Python. With each code sample comes a Jupyter notebook implementing the method on a real-data example; the notebooks can be accessed and easily run using our codebase.

Autonomous machine learning agents have revolutionized scientific discovery, yet they remain constrained by a Generate-Execute-Feedback paradigm. Previous approaches suffer from a severe Execution Bottleneck, as hypothesis evaluation relies strictly on expensive physical execution. To bypass these physical constraints, we internalize execution priors to substitute costly runtime checks with instantaneous predictive reasoning, drawing inspiration from World Models. In this work, we formalize the task of Data-centric Solution Preference and construct a comprehensive corpus of 18,438 pairwise comparisons. We demonstrate that LLMs exhibit significant predictive capabilities when primed with a Verified Data Analysis Report, achieving 61.5% accuracy and robust confidence calibration. Finally, we instantiate this framework in FOREAGENT, an agent that employs a Predict-then-Verify loop, achieving a 6x acceleration in convergence while surpassing execution-based baselines by +6%. Our code and dataset will be publicly available soon at https://github.com/zjunlp/predict-before-execute.

Simulation forms the backbone of modern self-driving development. Simulators help develop, test, and improve driving systems without putting humans, vehicles, or their environment at risk. However, simulators face a major challenge: They rely on realistic, scalable, yet interesting content. While recent advances in rendering and scene reconstruction make great strides in creating static scene assets, modeling their layout, dynamics, and behaviors remains challenging. In this work, we turn to language as a source of supervision for dynamic traffic scene generation. Our model, LCTGen, combines a large language model with a transformer-based decoder architecture that selects likely map locations from a dataset of maps, and produces an initial traffic distribution, as well as the dynamics of each vehicle. LCTGen outperforms prior work in both unconditional and conditional traffic scene generation in terms of realism and fidelity. Code and video will be available at https://ariostgx.github.io/lctgen.

Representation learning and exploration are among the key challenges for any deep reinforcement learning agent. In this work, we provide a singular value decomposition based method that can be used to obtain representations that preserve the underlying transition structure in the domain. Perhaps interestingly, we show that these representations also capture the relative frequency of state visitations, thereby providing an estimate for pseudo-counts for free. To scale this decomposition method to large-scale domains, we provide an algorithm that never requires building the transition matrix, can make use of deep networks, and also permits mini-batch training. Further, we draw inspiration from predictive state representations and extend our decomposition method to partially observable environments. With experiments on multi-task settings with partially observable domains, we show that the proposed method can not only learn useful representation on DM-Lab-30 environments (that have inputs involving language instructions, pixel images, and rewards, among others) but it can also be effective at hard exploration tasks in DM-Hard-8 environments.

Generative models trained using self-supervision of tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction. This is typically done using Monte Carlo simulation for future patient trajectories. However, existing approaches suffer from three key limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational costs, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH), that leverage next-token probability distributions discarded by standard Monte Carlo. We prove both estimators are unbiased and that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo sampling for any model and outcome. Empirically, on hospital mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV using the ETHOS-ARES framework, SCOPE and REACH match 100-sample Monte Carlo performance using only 10-11 samples (95% CI: [9,11]), representing a ~10x reduction in inference cost without degrading calibration. For ICU admission prediction, efficiency gains are more modest (~1.2x), which we attribute to the outcome's lower "spontaneity," a property we characterize theoretically and empirically. These methods substantially improve the feasibility of deploying generative EHR models in resource-constrained clinical settings.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

Hypothesis ranking is a crucial component of automated scientific discovery, particularly in natural sciences where wet-lab experiments are costly and throughput-limited. Existing approaches focus on pre-experiment ranking, relying solely on large language model's internal reasoning without incorporating empirical outcomes from experiments. We introduce the task of experiment-guided ranking, which aims to prioritize candidate hypotheses based on the results of previously tested ones. However, developing such strategies is challenging due to the impracticality of repeatedly conducting real experiments in natural science domains. To address this, we propose a simulator grounded in three domain-informed assumptions, modeling hypothesis performance as a function of similarity to a known ground truth hypothesis, perturbed by noise. We curate a dataset of 124 chemistry hypotheses with experimentally reported outcomes to validate the simulator. Building on this simulator, we develop a pseudo experiment-guided ranking method that clusters hypotheses by shared functional characteristics and prioritizes candidates based on insights derived from simulated experimental feedback. Experiments show that our method outperforms pre-experiment baselines and strong ablations.

Uncertainty is almost ubiquitous in safety-critical autonomous systems due to dynamic environments and the integration of learning-based components. Quantifying this uncertainty--particularly for time-series predictions in multi-stage optimization--is essential for safe control and verification tasks. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification tool with rigorous finite-sample guarantees, but its performance relies on the design of the nonconformity measure, which remains challenging for time-series data. Existing methods either overfit on small datasets, or are computationally intensive on long-time-horizon problems and/or large datasets. To overcome these issues, we propose a new parameterization of the score functions and formulate an optimization program to compute the associated parameters. The optimal parameters directly lead to norm-ball regions that constitute minimal-average-radius conformal sets. We then provide a reformulation of the underlying optimization program to enable faster computation. We provide theoretical proofs on both the validity and efficiency of predictors constructed based on the proposed approach. Numerical results on various case studies demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of efficiency, with much lower computational requirements.

The increasing adoption of synthetic data in aviation research offers a promising solution to data scarcity and confidentiality challenges. This study investigates the potential of generative models to produce realistic synthetic flight data and evaluates their quality through a comprehensive four-stage assessment framework. The need for synthetic flight data arises from their potential to serve as an alternative to confidential real-world records and to augment rare events in historical datasets. These enhanced datasets can then be used to train machine learning models that predict critical events, such as flight delays, cancellations, diversions, and turnaround times. Two generative models, Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE) and Gaussian Copula (GC), are adapted to generate synthetic flight information and compared based on their ability to preserve statistical similarity, fidelity, diversity, and predictive utility. Results indicate that while GC achieves higher statistical similarity and fidelity, its computational cost hinders its applicability to large datasets. In contrast, TVAE efficiently handles large datasets and enables scalable synthetic data generation. The findings demonstrate that synthetic data can support flight delay prediction models with accuracy comparable to those trained on real data. These results pave the way for leveraging synthetic flight data to enhance predictive modeling in air transportation.