Daily Papers

We introduce the use of reinforcement-learning (RL) techniques to the conformal-bootstrap programme. We demonstrate that suitable soft Actor-Critic RL algorithms can perform efficient, relatively cheap high-dimensional searches in the space of scaling dimensions and OPE-squared coefficients that produce sensible results for tens of CFT data from a single crossing equation. In this paper we test this approach in well-known 2D CFTs, with particular focus on the Ising and tri-critical Ising models and the free compactified boson CFT. We present results of as high as 36-dimensional searches, whose sole input is the expected number of operators per spin in a truncation of the conformal-block decomposition of the crossing equations. Our study of 2D CFTs uses only the global so(2,2) part of the conformal algebra, and our methods are equally applicable to higher-dimensional CFTs. When combined with other, already available, numerical and analytical methods, we expect our approach to yield an exciting new window into the non-perturbative structure of arbitrary (unitary or non-unitary) CFTs.

In this paper we deploy for the first time Reinforcement-Learning algorithms in the context of the conformal-bootstrap programme to obtain numerical solutions of conformal field theories (CFTs). As an illustration, we use a soft Actor-Critic algorithm and find approximate solutions to the truncated crossing equations of two-dimensional CFTs, successfully identifying well-known theories like the 2D Ising model and the 2D CFT of a compactified scalar. Our methods can perform efficient high-dimensional searches that can be used to study arbitrary (unitary or non-unitary) CFTs in any spacetime dimension.

We advocate a strategy of bootstrapping Feynman integrals from just knowledge of their singular behavior. This approach is complementary to other bootstrap programs, which exploit non-perturbative constraints such as unitarity, or amplitude-level constraints such as gauge invariance. We begin by studying where a Feynman integral can become singular, and the behavior it exhibits near these singularities. We then characterize the space of functions that we expect the integral to evaluate to, in order to formulate an appropriate ansatz. Finally, we derive constraints on where each singularity can appear in this ansatz, and use information about the expansion of the integral around singular points in order to determine the value of all remaining free coefficients. Throughout, we highlight how constraints that have previously only been derived for integrals with generic masses can be extended to integrals involving particles of equal or vanishing mass. We illustrate the effectiveness of this approach by bootstrapping a number of examples, including the four-point double box with a massive internal loop.

We study numerically the 6D (2,0) superconformal bootstrap using the soft-Actor-Critic (SAC) algorithm as a stochastic optimizer. We focus on the four-point functions of scalar superconformal primaries in the energy-momentum multiplet. Starting from the supergravity limit, we perform searches for adiabatically varied central charges and derive two curves for a collection of 80 CFT data (70 of these data correspond to unprotected long multiplets and 10 to protected short multiplets). We conjecture that the two curves capture the A- and D-series (2,0) theories. Our results are competitive when compared to the existing bounds coming from standard numerical bootstrap methods, and data obtained using the OPE inversion formula. With this paper we are also releasing our Python implementation of the SAC algorithm, BootSTOP. The paper discusses the main functionality features of this package.

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for creating statistically rigorous uncertainty sets/intervals for the predictions of such models. Critically, the sets are valid in a distribution-free sense: they possess explicit, non-asymptotic guarantees even without distributional assumptions or model assumptions. One can use conformal prediction with any pre-trained model, such as a neural network, to produce sets that are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. It is easy-to-understand, easy-to-use, and general, applying naturally to problems arising in the fields of computer vision, natural language processing, deep reinforcement learning, and so on. This hands-on introduction is aimed to provide the reader a working understanding of conformal prediction and related distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques with one self-contained document. We lead the reader through practical theory for and examples of conformal prediction and describe its extensions to complex machine learning tasks involving structured outputs, distribution shift, time-series, outliers, models that abstain, and more. Throughout, there are many explanatory illustrations, examples, and code samples in Python. With each code sample comes a Jupyter notebook implementing the method on a real-data example; the notebooks can be accessed and easily run using our codebase.

We study the conformal bootstrap of 1D CFTs on the straight Maldacena-Wilson line in 4D {cal N}=4 super-Yang-Mills theory. We introduce an improved truncation scheme with an 'OPE tail' approximation and use it to reproduce the 'bootstrability' results of Cavagli\`a et al. for the OPE-coefficients squared of the first three unprotected operators. For example, for the first OPE-coefficient squared at 't Hooft coupling (4pi)^2, linear-functional methods with two sum rules from integrated correlators give the rigorous result 0.294014873 pm 4.88 cdot 10^{-8}, whereas our methods give with machine-precision computations 0.294014228 pm 6.77 cdot 10^{-7}. For our numerical searches, we benchmark the Reinforcement Learning Soft Actor-Critic algorithm against an Interior Point Method algorithm (IPOPT) and comment on the merits of each algorithm.

We study simplified bootstrap problems for probability distributions on the infinite line and the circle. We show that the rapid convergence of the bootstrap method for problems on the infinite line is related to the fact that the smallest eigenvalue of the positive matrices in the exact solution becomes exponentially small for large matrices, while the moments grow factorially. As a result, the positivity condition is very finely tuned. For problems on the circle we show instead that the entries of the positive matrix of Fourier modes of the distribution depend linearly on the initial data of the recursion, with factorially growing coefficients. By positivity, these matrix elements are bounded in absolute value by one, so the initial data must also be fine-tuned. Additionally, we find that we can largely bypass the semi-definite program (SDP) nature of the problem on a circle by recognizing that these Fourier modes must be asymptotically exponentially small. With a simple ansatz, which we call the shoestring bootstrap, we can efficiently identify an interior point of the set of allowed matrices with much higher precision than conventional SDP bounds permit. We apply this method to solving unitary matrix model integrals by numerically constructing the orthogonal polynomials associated with the circle distribution.

The bootstrap is a popular data-driven method to quantify statistical uncertainty, but for modern high-dimensional problems, it could suffer from huge computational costs due to the need to repeatedly generate resamples and refit models. We study the use of bootstraps in high-dimensional environments with a small number of resamples. In particular, we show that with a recent "cheap" bootstrap perspective, using a number of resamples as small as one could attain valid coverage even when the dimension grows closely with the sample size, thus strongly supporting the implementability of the bootstrap for large-scale problems. We validate our theoretical results and compare the performance of our approach with other benchmarks via a range of experiments.

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples are able to manipulate conformal methods to construct prediction sets with invalid coverage rates, as the i.i.d. assumption is violated. To address this issue, a recent work, Randomized Smoothed Conformal Prediction (RSCP), was first proposed to certify the robustness of conformal prediction methods to adversarial noise. However, RSCP has two major limitations: (i) its robustness guarantee is flawed when used in practice and (ii) it tends to produce large uncertainty sets. To address these limitations, we first propose a novel framework called RSCP+ to provide provable robustness guarantee in evaluation, which fixes the issues in the original RSCP method. Next, we propose two novel methods, Post-Training Transformation (PTT) and Robust Conformal Training (RCT), to effectively reduce prediction set size with little computation overhead. Experimental results in CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and ImageNet suggest the baseline method only yields trivial predictions including full label set, while our methods could boost the efficiency by up to 4.36times, 5.46times, and 16.9times respectively and provide practical robustness guarantee. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Trustworthy-ML-Lab/Provably-Robust-Conformal-Prediction.

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample sizes or model misspecification. We introduce a practical and broadly applicable Bayesian conformal approach based on the influence-function Bayesian bootstrap (BB) with data-driven tuning of the Dirichlet concentration parameter, α. By efficiently approximating the Bayesian bootstrap predictive distribution via influence functions and calibrating α to optimize empirical coverage or average log-probability, our method constructs prediction intervals and distributions that are both well-calibrated and sharp. Across a range of regression models and data settings, this Bayesian conformal framework consistently yields improved empirical coverage and log-score compared to standard Bayesian posteriors. Our procedure is fast, easy to implement, and offers a flexible approach for distributional calibration in predictive modeling.

Non-linear interactions during inflation generate non-Gaussianities in the distribution of primordial curvature. In many theories, the physics is scale-invariant, such that the induced three-point function depends solely on a dimensionless shape function S(x,y)sim k^6B_ζ(kx,ky,k). To confront such models with observations, one typically builds specialized estimators for each shape, then applies them to cosmic microwave background datasets at significant computational expense. In this Letter, we take a different approach, directly reconstructing S(x,y) from observations using an efficient logarithmically-binned estimator in primordial-space (motivated by the modal program). Applying this to temperature and polarization maps from Planck, we obtain high-resolution shape measurements across the full (x,y)-plane, including squeezed limits. Our approach is close-to-optimal, highly interpretable, and preserves the information content on (optimally-analyzed) standard templates within approx 10%; moreover, we can use it to assess the scale-dependence of our constraints, finding that Planck is sensitive to approx 6 e-folds of non-Gaussian evolution with a peak sensitivity around 0.1h,Mpc^{-1}. Since we work directly in shape-space, data and theory can be compared in milliseconds. As an example, we perform a search for massive particle exchange using a suite of over 20,000 theoretical templates computed with exact bootstrap methods (for the first time) across a wide range of masses, spins, and sound-speeds; the spin-two analysis yields a maximum significance of 2.6σ. Our approach can be used to probe a wide range of scale-invariant models in orders-of-magnitude less time than with direct estimators, allowing the inflationary paradigm to be explored in new ways.

Language models for program synthesis are usually trained and evaluated on programming competition datasets (MBPP, APPS). However, these datasets are limited in size and quality, while these language models are extremely data hungry. Additionally, the language models have a misaligned program synthesis process compared to humans. While humans iteratively develop code with the help of a compiler, most program synthesis models currently produce code in one go. To solve these issues, we introduce a bootstrapping algorithm for program synthesis, that supports teaching models how to repair. We show that bootstrapping consistently outperforms regular fine-tuning. Compared to other work, our bootstrapped model performs on par with fine-tuned models that are 68\% larger. Notably, bootstrapping with repairing also improves non-repairing performance compared to regular bootstrapping during inference. However, on our models, repairing during inference is likely inferior to simply sampling the same number of solutions. Furthermore, we find that there are issues with the example test cases in the training portion of the APPS dataset that are valuable to the community, as many repairing and reinforcement learning methods rely on them.

Large linear systems play an important role in high-energy theory, appearing in amplitude bootstraps and during integral reduction. This paper introduces FiniteFieldSolve, a general-purpose toolkit for exactly solving large linear systems over the rationals. The solver interfaces directly with Mathematica, is straightforward to install, and seamlessly replaces Mathematica's native solvers. In testing, FiniteFieldSolve is approximately two orders of magnitude faster than Mathematica and uses an order of magnitude less memory. The package also compares favorably against other public solvers in FiniteFieldSolve's intended use cases. As the name of the package suggests, solutions are obtained via well-known finite field methods. These methods suffer from introducing an inordinate number of modulo (or integer division) operations with respect to different primes. By automatically recompiling itself for each prime, FiniteFieldSolve converts the division operations into much faster combinations of instructions, dramatically improving performance. The technique of compiling the prime can be applied to any finite field solver, where the time savings will be solver dependent. The operation of the package is illustrated through a detailed example of an amplitude bootstrap.

Assessing sampling uncertainty in extremum estimation can be challenging when the asymptotic variance is not analytically tractable. Bootstrap inference offers a feasible solution but can be computationally costly especially when the model is complex. This paper uses iterates of a specially designed stochastic optimization algorithm as draws from which both point estimates and bootstrap standard errors can be computed in a single run. The draws are generated by the gradient and Hessian computed from batches of data that are resampled at each iteration. We show that these draws yield consistent estimates and asymptotically valid frequentist inference for a large class of regular problems. The algorithm provides accurate standard errors in simulation examples and empirical applications at low computational costs. The draws from the algorithm also provide a convenient way to detect data irregularities.

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.

Uncertainty is almost ubiquitous in safety-critical autonomous systems due to dynamic environments and the integration of learning-based components. Quantifying this uncertainty--particularly for time-series predictions in multi-stage optimization--is essential for safe control and verification tasks. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification tool with rigorous finite-sample guarantees, but its performance relies on the design of the nonconformity measure, which remains challenging for time-series data. Existing methods either overfit on small datasets, or are computationally intensive on long-time-horizon problems and/or large datasets. To overcome these issues, we propose a new parameterization of the score functions and formulate an optimization program to compute the associated parameters. The optimal parameters directly lead to norm-ball regions that constitute minimal-average-radius conformal sets. We then provide a reformulation of the underlying optimization program to enable faster computation. We provide theoretical proofs on both the validity and efficiency of predictors constructed based on the proposed approach. Numerical results on various case studies demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of efficiency, with much lower computational requirements.

In this paper, we propose a unified approach to harness quantum conformal methods for multi-output distributions, with a particular emphasis on two experimental paradigms: (i) a standard 2-qubit circuit scenario producing a four-dimensional outcome distribution, and (ii) a multi-basis measurement setting that concatenates measurement probabilities in different bases (Z, X, Y) into a twelve-dimensional output space. By combining a multioutput regression model (e.g., random forests) with distributional conformal prediction, we validate coverage and interval-set sizes on both simulated quantum data and multi-basis measurement data. Our results confirm that classical conformal prediction can effectively provide coverage guarantees even when the target probabilities derive from inherently quantum processes. Such synergy opens the door to next-generation quantum-classical hybrid frameworks, providing both improved interpretability and rigorous coverage for quantum machine learning tasks. All codes and full reproducible Colab notebooks are made available at https://github.com/detasar/QECMMOU.

This paper pursues the insight that large language models (LLMs) trained to generate code can vastly improve the effectiveness of mutation operators applied to programs in genetic programming (GP). Because such LLMs benefit from training data that includes sequential changes and modifications, they can approximate likely changes that humans would make. To highlight the breadth of implications of such evolution through large models (ELM), in the main experiment ELM combined with MAP-Elites generates hundreds of thousands of functional examples of Python programs that output working ambulating robots in the Sodarace domain, which the original LLM had never seen in pre-training. These examples then help to bootstrap training a new conditional language model that can output the right walker for a particular terrain. The ability to bootstrap new models that can output appropriate artifacts for a given context in a domain where zero training data was previously available carries implications for open-endedness, deep learning, and reinforcement learning. These implications are explored here in depth in the hope of inspiring new directions of research now opened up by ELM.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

Volumetry is one of the principal downstream applications of 3D medical image segmentation, for example, to detect abnormal tissue growth or for surgery planning. Conformal Prediction is a promising framework for uncertainty quantification, providing calibrated predictive intervals associated with automatic volume measurements. However, this methodology is based on the hypothesis that calibration and test samples are exchangeable, an assumption that is in practice often violated in medical image applications. A weighted formulation of Conformal Prediction can be framed to mitigate this issue, but its empirical investigation in the medical domain is still lacking. A potential reason is that it relies on the estimation of the density ratio between the calibration and test distributions, which is likely to be intractable in scenarios involving high-dimensional data. To circumvent this, we propose an efficient approach for density ratio estimation relying on the compressed latent representations generated by the segmentation model. Our experiments demonstrate the efficiency of our approach to reduce the coverage error in the presence of covariate shifts, in both synthetic and real-world settings. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/benolmbrt/wcp_miccai

We use tools from geometric statistics to analyze the usual estimation procedure of a template shape. This applies to shapes from landmarks, curves, surfaces, images etc. We demonstrate the asymptotic bias of the template shape estimation using the stratified geometry of the shape space. We give a Taylor expansion of the bias with respect to a parameter sigma describing the measurement error on the data. We propose two bootstrap procedures that quantify the bias and correct it, if needed. They are applicable for any type of shape data. We give a rule of thumb to provide intuition on whether the bias has to be corrected. This exhibits the parameters that control the bias' magnitude. We illustrate our results on simulated and real shape data.

Human perception of 3D shapes goes beyond reconstructing them as a set of points or a composition of geometric primitives: we also effortlessly understand higher-level shape structure such as the repetition and reflective symmetry of object parts. In contrast, recent advances in 3D shape sensing focus more on low-level geometry but less on these higher-level relationships. In this paper, we propose 3D shape programs, integrating bottom-up recognition systems with top-down, symbolic program structure to capture both low-level geometry and high-level structural priors for 3D shapes. Because there are no annotations of shape programs for real shapes, we develop neural modules that not only learn to infer 3D shape programs from raw, unannotated shapes, but also to execute these programs for shape reconstruction. After initial bootstrapping, our end-to-end differentiable model learns 3D shape programs by reconstructing shapes in a self-supervised manner. Experiments demonstrate that our model accurately infers and executes 3D shape programs for highly complex shapes from various categories. It can also be integrated with an image-to-shape module to infer 3D shape programs directly from an RGB image, leading to 3D shape reconstructions that are both more accurate and more physically plausible.

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

We extend molecular bootstrap embedding to make it appropriate for implementation on a quantum computer. This enables solution of the electronic structure problem of a large molecule as an optimization problem for a composite Lagrangian governing fragments of the total system, in such a way that fragment solutions can harness the capabilities of quantum computers. By employing state-of-art quantum subroutines including the quantum SWAP test and quantum amplitude amplification, we show how a quadratic speedup can be obtained over the classical algorithm, in principle. Utilization of quantum computation also allows the algorithm to match -- at little additional computational cost -- full density matrices at fragment boundaries, instead of being limited to 1-RDMs. Current quantum computers are small, but quantum bootstrap embedding provides a potentially generalizable strategy for harnessing such small machines through quantum fragment matching.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations during the inference can violate the exchangeability assumption, challenge the coverage guarantees, and result in a subsequent decline in empirical coverage. In this work, we propose a certifiably robust learning-reasoning conformal prediction framework (COLEP) via probabilistic circuits, which comprise a data-driven learning component that trains statistical models to learn different semantic concepts, and a reasoning component that encodes knowledge and characterizes the relationships among the trained models for logic reasoning. To achieve exact and efficient reasoning, we employ probabilistic circuits (PCs) within the reasoning component. Theoretically, we provide end-to-end certification of prediction coverage for COLEP in the presence of bounded adversarial perturbations. We also provide certified coverage considering the finite size of the calibration set. Furthermore, we prove that COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy over a single model as long as the utilities of knowledge models are non-trivial. Empirically, we show the validity and tightness of our certified coverage, demonstrating the robust conformal prediction of COLEP on various datasets, including GTSRB, CIFAR10, and AwA2. We show that COLEP achieves up to 12% improvement in certified coverage on GTSRB, 9% on CIFAR-10, and 14% on AwA2.

Conformal symmetries, i.e.\ coordinate transformations that preserve angles, play a key role in many fields, including physics, mathematics, computer vision and (geometric) machine learning. Here we build a neural network that is equivariant under general conformal transformations. To achieve this, we lift data from flat Euclidean space to Anti de Sitter (AdS) space. This allows us to exploit a known correspondence between conformal transformations of flat space and isometric transformations on the AdS space. We then build upon the fact that such isometric transformations have been extensively studied on general geometries in the geometric deep learning literature. We employ message-passing layers conditioned on the proper distance, yielding a computationally efficient framework. We validate our model on tasks from computer vision and statistical physics, demonstrating strong performance, improved generalization capacities, and the ability to extract conformal data such as scaling dimensions from the trained network.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for each of these three subtasks and discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each technique with references to theoretical and empirical studies. Further, recommendations are given to encourage best yet feasible practices in research and applications of machine learning. Common methods such as the holdout method for model evaluation and selection are covered, which are not recommended when working with small datasets. Different flavors of the bootstrap technique are introduced for estimating the uncertainty of performance estimates, as an alternative to confidence intervals via normal approximation if bootstrapping is computationally feasible. Common cross-validation techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation and k-fold cross-validation are reviewed, the bias-variance trade-off for choosing k is discussed, and practical tips for the optimal choice of k are given based on empirical evidence. Different statistical tests for algorithm comparisons are presented, and strategies for dealing with multiple comparisons such as omnibus tests and multiple-comparison corrections are discussed. Finally, alternative methods for algorithm selection, such as the combined F-test 5x2 cross-validation and nested cross-validation, are recommended for comparing machine learning algorithms when datasets are small.

Large Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) are increasingly used in safety-critical applications, yet their opaque decision-making complicates risk assessment and reliability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps assess prediction confidence and enables abstention when uncertainty is high. Conformal prediction (CP), a leading UQ method, provides statistical guarantees but relies on static thresholds, which fail to adapt to task complexity and evolving data distributions, leading to suboptimal trade-offs in accuracy, coverage, and informativeness. To address this, we propose learnable conformal abstention, integrating reinforcement learning (RL) with CP to optimize abstention thresholds dynamically. By treating CP thresholds as adaptive actions, our approach balances multiple objectives, minimizing prediction set size while maintaining reliable coverage. Extensive evaluations across diverse LLM/VLM benchmarks show our method outperforms Least Ambiguous Classifiers (LAC) and Adaptive Prediction Sets (APS), improving accuracy by up to 3.2%, boosting AUROC for hallucination detection by 22.19%, enhancing uncertainty-guided selective generation (AUARC) by 21.17%, and reducing calibration error by 70%-85%. These improvements hold across multiple models and datasets while consistently meeting the 90% coverage target, establishing our approach as a more effective and flexible solution for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications. The code is available at: {https://github.com/sinatayebati/vlm-uncertainty}.

Experiments with pre-trained models such as BERT are often based on a single checkpoint. While the conclusions drawn apply to the artifact tested in the experiment (i.e., the particular instance of the model), it is not always clear whether they hold for the more general procedure which includes the architecture, training data, initialization scheme, and loss function. Recent work has shown that repeating the pre-training process can lead to substantially different performance, suggesting that an alternate strategy is needed to make principled statements about procedures. To enable researchers to draw more robust conclusions, we introduce the MultiBERTs, a set of 25 BERT-Base checkpoints, trained with similar hyper-parameters as the original BERT model but differing in random weight initialization and shuffling of training data. We also define the Multi-Bootstrap, a non-parametric bootstrap method for statistical inference designed for settings where there are multiple pre-trained models and limited test data. To illustrate our approach, we present a case study of gender bias in coreference resolution, in which the Multi-Bootstrap lets us measure effects that may not be detected with a single checkpoint. We release our models and statistical library along with an additional set of 140 intermediate checkpoints captured during pre-training to facilitate research on learning dynamics.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the dependence between datapoints induced by the graph structure. We leverage recent advances in conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for node classification in inductive learning scenarios. We do this by taking an existing approach for conformal classification that relies on exchangeable data and modifying it by appropriately weighting the conformal scores to reflect the network structure. We show through experiments on standard benchmark datasets using popular GNN models that our approach provides tighter and better calibrated prediction sets than a naive application of conformal prediction.

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend conformal prediction to the federated learning setting. The main challenge we face is data heterogeneity across the clients - this violates the fundamental tenet of exchangeability required for conformal prediction. We propose a weaker notion of partial exchangeability, better suited to the FL setting, and use it to develop the Federated Conformal Prediction (FCP) framework. We show FCP enjoys rigorous theoretical guarantees and excellent empirical performance on several computer vision and medical imaging datasets. Our results demonstrate a practical approach to incorporating meaningful uncertainty quantification in distributed and heterogeneous environments. We provide code used in our experiments https://github.com/clu5/federated-conformal.

Long context reasoning in large language models (LLMs) has demonstrated enhancement of their cognitive capabilities via chain-of-thought (CoT) inference. Training such models is usually done via reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) in reasoning based problems, like math and programming. However, RLVR is limited by several bottlenecks, such as, lack of dense reward, and inadequate sample efficiency. As a result, it requires significant compute resources in post-training phase. To overcome these limitations, in this work, we propose Semantic Soft Bootstrapping (SSB), a self-distillation technique, in which the same base language model plays the role of both teacher and student, but receives different semantic contexts about the correctness of its outcome at training time. The model is first prompted with a math problem and several rollouts are generated. From them, the correct and most common incorrect response are filtered, and then provided to the model in context to produce a more robust, step-by-step explanation with a verified final answer. This pipeline automatically curates a paired teacher-student training set from raw problem-answer data, without any human intervention. This generation process also produces a sequence of logits, which is what the student model tries to match in the training phase just from the bare question alone. In our experiment, Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct on GSM8K dataset via parameter-efficient fine-tuning. We then tested its accuracy on MATH500, and AIME2024 benchmarks. Our experiments show a jump of 10.6%, and 10% improvements in accuracy, respectively, over group relative policy optimization (GRPO), which is a commonly used RLVR algorithm. Our code is available at https://github.com/purbeshmitra/semantic-soft-bootstrapping, and the model, curated dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/purbeshmitra/semantic-soft-bootstrapping.

We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative language models (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM responses are typically sampled from the model's predicted distribution over the large, combinatorial output space of natural language. Translating this process to conformal prediction, we calibrate a stopping rule for sampling different outputs from the LM that get added to a growing set of candidates until we are confident that the output set is sufficient. Since some samples may be low-quality, we also simultaneously calibrate and apply a rejection rule for removing candidates from the output set to reduce noise. Similar to conformal prediction, we prove that the sampled set returned by our procedure contains at least one acceptable answer with high probability, while still being empirically precise (i.e., small) on average. Furthermore, within this set of candidate responses, we show that we can also accurately identify subsets of individual components -- such as phrases or sentences -- that are each independently correct (e.g., that are not "hallucinations"), again with statistical guarantees. We demonstrate the promise of our approach on multiple tasks in open-domain question answering, text summarization, and radiology report generation using different LM variants.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

Code agents increasingly help developers work with unfamiliar repositories, but every such task depends on a costly prerequisite: bootstrapping the repository into a usable development state. This process requires substantial trial-and-error exploration, yet the resulting knowledge--resolved dependencies, repair strategies--stays trapped in a single conversation, unavailable to future agents. We therefore formulate repository bootstrapping as a reusable startup knowledge problem and introduce BootstrapAgent, a multi-agent framework that distills the heuristics discovered during bootstrap exploration into a persistent, verifiable, agent-consumable .bootstrap contract. Through evidence extraction, structured planning, deterministic Docker-based verification, and trace-driven repair, BootstrapAgent generates a contract covering environment setup, diagnostic checks, minimal verification, and accumulated repair knowledge. We further propose warm repair with clean replay to accelerate iterative debugging without sacrificing cold-start reproducibility, and a delta repair with sanity check to prevent reward hacking. Experiments on three benchmarks show that BootstrapAgent achieves a 92.9% success rate, outperforming the baseline by over 10% while reducing downstream agent token usage by 25.9% and build time by 22.3%. Our code is available at https://github.com/Vossera/BootstrapAgent.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

Early stopping based on hold-out data is a popular regularization technique designed to mitigate overfitting and increase the predictive accuracy of neural networks. Models trained with early stopping often provide relatively accurate predictions, but they generally still lack precise statistical guarantees unless they are further calibrated using independent hold-out data. This paper addresses the above limitation with conformalized early stopping: a novel method that combines early stopping with conformal calibration while efficiently recycling the same hold-out data. This leads to models that are both accurate and able to provide exact predictive inferences without multiple data splits nor overly conservative adjustments. Practical implementations are developed for different learning tasks -- outlier detection, multi-class classification, regression -- and their competitive performance is demonstrated on real data.

In this work we study indoor scene object placement. Given a 3D indoor scene and an object, the task is to predict placement locations within the scene. Empirical observations of data-driven approaches to the problem show their tendency to miss placement modes. We introduce a system which helps to address this flaw. We design a Domain Specific Language (DSL) that specifies object relational constraints. Upon execution, programs from our language predict possible placements from a partial scene and object. We design a generative model which writes these programs automatically. Available 3D scene datasets do not contain programs to train on, and naively extracted programs only predict the original placement location of scene objects. Training on these programs results in subpar performance so we introduce a new program bootstrapping algorithm that improves our system's performance compared to the naive approach. To quantify our qualitative observations, we introduce a new evaluation procedure which captures how well a system models per-object location distributions. We ask human annotators to label all the possible places an object can go in a scene and compare this set against locations produced by the system in question. Our system produces per-object location distributions more consistent with human annotators than those produced by existing data-driven approaches and a zero-shot approach using an LLM. While other systems degrade in performance when training data is sparse, our system does not degrade to the same degree.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

We develop new conformal inference methods for obtaining validity guarantees on the output of large language models (LLMs). Prior work in conformal language modeling identifies a subset of the text that satisfies a high-probability guarantee of correctness. These methods work by filtering claims from the LLM's original response if a scoring function evaluated on the claim fails to exceed a threshold calibrated via split conformal prediction. Existing methods in this area suffer from two deficiencies. First, the guarantee stated is not conditionally valid. The trustworthiness of the filtering step may vary based on the topic of the response. Second, because the scoring function is imperfect, the filtering step can remove many valuable and accurate claims. We address both of these challenges via two new conformal methods. First, we generalize the conditional conformal procedure of Gibbs et al. (2023) in order to adaptively issue weaker guarantees when they are required to preserve the utility of the output. Second, we show how to systematically improve the quality of the scoring function via a novel algorithm for differentiating through the conditional conformal procedure. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on biography and medical question-answering datasets.

Multi-label classification problems with thousands of classes are hard to solve with in-context learning alone, as language models (LMs) might lack prior knowledge about the precise classes or how to assign them, and it is generally infeasible to demonstrate every class in a prompt. We propose a general program, Infer--Retrieve--Rank, that defines multi-step interactions between LMs and retrievers to efficiently tackle such problems. We implement this program using the DSPy programming model, which specifies in-context systems in a declarative manner, and use DSPy optimizers to tune it towards specific datasets by bootstrapping only tens of few-shot examples. Our primary extreme classification program, optimized separately for each task, attains state-of-the-art results across three benchmarks (HOUSE, TECH, TECHWOLF). We apply the same program to a benchmark with vastly different characteristics and attain competitive performance as well (BioDEX). Unlike prior work, our proposed solution requires no finetuning, is easily applicable to new tasks, alleviates prompt engineering, and requires only tens of labeled examples. Our code is public at https://github.com/KarelDO/xmc.dspy.

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation (procedural fairness), we analyze the holistic decision-making pipeline to evaluate substantive fairness-the equity of downstream outcomes. Theoretically, we derive an upper bound that decomposes prediction-set size disparity into interpretable components, clarifying how label-clustered CP helps control method-driven contributions to unfairness. To facilitate scalable empirical analysis, we introduce an LLM-in-the-loop evaluator that approximates human assessment of substantive fairness across diverse modalities. Our experiments reveal that label-clustered CP variants consistently deliver superior substantive fairness. Finally, we empirically show that equalized set sizes, rather than coverage, strongly correlate with improved substantive fairness, enabling practitioners to design more fair CP systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/llm-in-the-loop-conformal-fairness.

A fundamental skill among human developers is the ability to understand and reason about program execution. As an example, a programmer can mentally simulate code execution in natural language to debug and repair code (aka. rubber duck debugging). However, large language models (LLMs) of code are typically trained on the surface textual form of programs, thus may lack a semantic understanding of how programs execute at run-time. To address this issue, we propose NExT, a method to teach LLMs to inspect the execution traces of programs (variable states of executed lines) and reason about their run-time behavior through chain-of-thought (CoT) rationales. Specifically, NExT uses self-training to bootstrap a synthetic training set of execution-aware rationales that lead to correct task solutions (e.g., fixed programs) without laborious manual annotation. Experiments on program repair tasks based on MBPP and HumanEval demonstrate that NExT improves the fix rate of a PaLM 2 model, by 26.1% and 14.3% absolute, respectively, with significantly improved rationale quality as verified by automated metrics and human raters. Our model can also generalize to scenarios where program traces are absent at test-time.

Recent machine learning papers often report 1-2 percentage point improvements from a single run on a benchmark. These gains are highly sensitive to random seeds, data ordering, and implementation details, yet are rarely accompanied by uncertainty estimates or significance tests. It is therefore unclear when a reported +1-2% reflects a real algorithmic advance versus noise. We revisit this problem under realistic compute budgets, where only a few runs are affordable. We propose a simple, PC-friendly evaluation protocol based on paired multi-seed runs, bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals, and a sign-flip permutation test on per-seed deltas. The protocol is intentionally conservative and is meant as a guardrail against over-claiming. We instantiate it on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-10N, and AG News using synthetic no-improvement, small-gain, and medium-gain scenarios. Single runs and unpaired t-tests often suggest significant gains for 0.6-2.0 point improvements, especially on text. With only three seeds, our paired protocol never declares significance in these settings. We argue that such conservative evaluation is a safer default for small gains under tight budgets.

We present MBXP, an execution-based code completion benchmark in 10+ programming languages. This collection of datasets is generated by our conversion framework that translates prompts and test cases from the original MBPP dataset to the corresponding data in a target language. Based on this benchmark, we are able to evaluate code generation models in a multi-lingual fashion, and in particular discover generalization ability of language models on out-of-domain languages, advantages of large multi-lingual models over mono-lingual, benefits of few-shot prompting, and zero-shot translation abilities. In addition, we use our code generation model to perform large-scale bootstrapping to obtain synthetic canonical solutions in several languages. These solutions can be used for other code-related evaluations such as insertion-based, summarization, or code translation tasks where we demonstrate results and release as part of our benchmark.

We present an efficient algorithm for simultaneously training sparse generalized linear models across many related problems, which may arise from bootstrapping, cross-validation and nonparametric permutation testing. Our approach leverages the redundancies across problems to obtain significant computational improvements relative to solving the problems sequentially by a conventional algorithm. We demonstrate our fast simultaneous training of generalized linear models (FaSTGLZ) algorithm on a number of real-world datasets, and we run otherwise computationally intensive bootstrapping and permutation test analyses that are typically necessary for obtaining statistically rigorous classification results and meaningful interpretation. Code is freely available at http://liinc.bme.columbia.edu/fastglz.

Knowledge Graph Question Answering (KGQA) has shown promise for grounded and interpretable reasoning, yet existing approaches often fail to provide reliable coverage guarantees over retrieved answers. While Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for producing prediction sets with statistical guarantees, prior methods suffer from critical limitations in both calibration validity and score discriminability, resulting in violated coverage guarantees and excessively large prediction sets. To address these pitfalls, we propose Conformal Path Reasoning (CPR), a trustworthy KGQA framework with two key innovations. First, we perform query-level conformal calibration over path-level scores, preserving the exchangeability while generating path prediction sets. Second, we introduce the Residual Conformal Value Network (RCVNet), a lightweight module trained via PUCT-guided exploration to learn discriminative path-level nonconformity scores. Experiments on benchmarks show that CPR significantly improves the Empirical Coverage Rate by 34% while reducing average prediction set size by 40% compared to conformal baselines. These results validate the efficacy of CPR in satisfying coverage guarantees with substantially more compact answer sets.

Self-alignment is an effective way to reduce the cost of human annotation while ensuring promising model capability. However, most current methods complete the data collection and training steps in a single round, which may overlook the continuously improving ability of self-aligned models. This gives rise to a key query: What if we do multi-time bootstrapping self-alignment? Does this strategy enhance model performance or lead to rapid degradation? In this paper, our pioneering exploration delves into the impact of bootstrapping self-alignment on large language models. Our findings reveal that bootstrapping self-alignment markedly surpasses the single-round approach, by guaranteeing data diversity from in-context learning. To further exploit the capabilities of bootstrapping, we investigate and adjust the training order of data, which yields improved performance of the model. Drawing on these findings, we propose Step-On-Feet Tuning (SOFT) which leverages model's continuously enhanced few-shot ability to boost zero or one-shot performance. Based on easy-to-hard training recipe, we propose SOFT+ which further boost self-alignment's performance. Our experiments demonstrate the efficiency of SOFT (SOFT+) across various classification and generation tasks, highlighting the potential of bootstrapping self-alignment on continually enhancing model alignment performance.

Transformers have become a standard architecture in machine learning, demonstrating strong in-context learning (ICL) abilities that allow them to learn from the prompt at inference time. However, uncertainty quantification for ICL remains an open challenge, particularly in noisy regression tasks. This paper investigates whether ICL can be leveraged for distribution-free uncertainty estimation, proposing a method based on conformal prediction to construct prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. While traditional conformal methods are computationally expensive due to repeated model fitting, we exploit ICL to efficiently generate confidence intervals in a single forward pass. Our empirical analysis compares this approach against ridge regression-based conformal methods, showing that conformal prediction with in-context learning (CP with ICL) achieves robust and scalable uncertainty estimates. Additionally, we evaluate its performance under distribution shifts and establish scaling laws to guide model training. These findings bridge ICL and conformal prediction, providing a theoretically grounded and new framework for uncertainty quantification in transformer-based models.

The Weak Gravity Conjecture has recently been re-formulated in terms of a particle with non-negative self-binding energy. Because of the dual conformal field theory (CFT) formulation in the anti-de Sitter space the conformal dimension Delta (Q) of the lowest-dimension operator with charge Q under some global U(1) symmetry must be a convex function of Q. This property has been conjectured to hold for any (unitary) conformal field theory and generalized to larger global symmetry groups. Here we refine and further test the convex charge conjecture via semiclassical computations for fixed charge sectors of different theories in different dimensions. We analyze the convexity properties of the leading and next-to-leading order terms stemming from the semiclassical computation, de facto, extending previous tests beyond the leading perturbative contributions and to arbitrary charges. In particular, the leading contribution is sufficient to test convexity in the semiclassical computations. We also consider intriguing cases in which the models feature a transition from real to complex conformal dimensions either as a function of the charge or number of matter fields. As a relevant example of the first kind, we investigate the O(N) model in 4+epsilon dimensions. As an example of the second type we consider the U(N)times U(M) model in 4-epsilon dimensions. Both models display a rich dynamics where, by changing the number of matter fields and/or charge, one can achieve dramatically different physical regimes. We discover that whenever a complex conformal dimension appears, the real part satisfies the convexity property.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy. This observation can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.

We introduce featom, an open source code that implements a high-order finite element solver for the radial Schr\"odinger, Dirac, and Kohn-Sham equations. The formulation accommodates various mesh types, such as uniform or exponential, and the convergence can be systematically controlled by increasing the number and/or polynomial order of the finite element basis functions. The Dirac equation is solved using a squared Hamiltonian approach to eliminate spurious states. To address the slow convergence of the kappa=pm1 states due to divergent derivatives at the origin, we incorporate known asymptotic forms into the solutions. We achieve a high level of accuracy (10^{-8} Hartree) for total energies and eigenvalues of heavy atoms such as uranium in both Schr\"odinger and Dirac Kohn-Sham solutions. We provide detailed convergence studies and computational parameters required to attain commonly required accuracies. Finally, we compare our results with known analytic results as well as the results of other methods. In particular, we calculate benchmark results for atomic numbers (Z) from 1 to 92, verifying current benchmarks. We demonstrate significant speedup compared to the state-of-the-art shooting solver dftatom. An efficient, modular Fortran 2008 implementation, is provided under an open source, permissive license, including examples and tests, wherein particular emphasis is placed on the independence (no global variables), reusability, and generality of the individual routines.

Template-based segmentation, a widely used paradigm in medical imaging, propagates anatomical labels via deformable registration from a labeled atlas to a target image, and is often used to compute volumetric biomarkers for downstream decision-making. While conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample valid intervals for scalar metrics, existing segmentation-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches either rely on learned model features, often unavailable in classic template-based pipelines, or treat the registration process as a black box, resulting in overly conservative intervals when applied directly in output space. We introduce ConVOLT, a CP framework that achieves efficient volumetric UQ by conditioning calibration on properties of the estimated deformation field from template-based segmentation. ConVOLT calibrates a learned volumetric scaling factor from deformation space features. We evaluate ConVOLT on template-based segmentation tasks involving global, regional, and label volumetry across multiple datasets and registration methods. ConVOLT achieves target coverage while producing substantially tighter intervals than output-space conformal baselines. Our work paves way to exploit the registration process for efficient UQ in medical imaging pipelines.

In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

Symmetries play a central role in quantum many-body physics, yet uncovering them systematically remains challenging. We introduce a bootstrap framework designed to reconstruct the representation theory of hidden finite group symmetries of quantum many-body lattice Hamiltonians, using only a known symmetry subgroup N and spectral correlations between its symmetry sectors. We introduce a novel variant of the spectral form factor, the cross spectral form factor (xSFF), which we compute via exact diagonalization to seed the bootstrap algorithm. By applying the constraints derived from these data alongside the algebraic conditions of the fusion rules, our bootstrap procedure sharply restricts the set of candidate groups G. Remarkably, without any prior assumptions regarding the full symmetry group G, our method can systematically recover its representation-theoretic data, including the number and dimensions of the irreducible representations, their branching rules with respect to N, the fusion algebra, and the full character table. This framework applies equally well to chaotic and integrable many-body systems and accommodates both unitary and anti-unitary symmetries. Through various examples, we demonstrate that the underlying group G can be uniquely identified. In particular, our bootstrap independently recovers the Z_4 symmetry at the self-dual point of the three-state quantum torus chain, detects signatures of projective representations in the effective Hamiltonian of the driven Bose-Hubbard model, and rediscovers the η-pairing SO(4) symmetry of the one-dimensional Fermi-Hubbard model. Our framework thus establishes a practical route to identify symmetries directly from dynamical spectral observables.

Using a fully Bayesian approach, Gaussian Process regression is extended to include marginalisation over the kernel choice and kernel hyperparameters. In addition, Bayesian model comparison via the evidence enables direct kernel comparison. The calculation of the joint posterior was implemented with a transdimensional sampler which simultaneously samples over the discrete kernel choice and their hyperparameters by embedding these in a higher-dimensional space, from which samples are taken using nested sampling. Kernel recovery and mean function inference were explored on synthetic data from exoplanet transit light curve simulations. Subsequently, the method was extended to marginalisation over mean functions and noise models and applied to the inference of the present-day Hubble parameter, H_0, from real measurements of the Hubble parameter as a function of redshift, derived from the cosmologically model-independent cosmic chronometer and ΛCDM-dependent baryon acoustic oscillation observations. The inferred H_0 values from the cosmic chronometers, baryon acoustic oscillations and combined datasets are H_0= 66 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, H_0= 67 pm 10, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1} and H_0= 69 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, respectively. The kernel posterior of the cosmic chronometers dataset prefers a non-stationary linear kernel. Finally, the datasets are shown to be not in tension with ln R=12.17pm 0.02.

We introduce a bootstrapping approach to train long-context language models by exploiting their short-context capabilities only. Our method utilizes a simple agent workflow to synthesize diverse long-context instruction tuning data, thereby eliminating the necessity for manual data collection and annotation. The proposed data synthesis workflow requires only a short-context language model, a text retriever, and a document collection, all of which are readily accessible within the open-source ecosystem. Subsequently, language models are fine-tuned using the synthesized data to extend their context lengths. In this manner, we effectively transfer the short-context capabilities of language models to long-context scenarios through a bootstrapping process. We conduct experiments with the open-source Llama-3 family of models and demonstrate that our method can successfully extend the context length to up to 1M tokens, achieving superior performance across various benchmarks.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

In an earlier paper [arXiv:2511.03669] we extracted the OPE of celestial CFT operator duals of positive helicity graviton and scalar particles from the Mellin transformed relevant MHV amplitudes of conformal gravity, realised as the bosonic subsector of the Berkovits-Witten theory. A soft theorem analysis of bulk MHV amplitudes established that this conformal gravity exhibits a chiral bms_4 symmetry on the celestial sphere with the associated sl(2,R) current algebra, which acquires a non-trivial central extension, unlike the Einstein gravity. Here we construct a 2d chiral CFT free-field realisation of the relevant chiral bms_4 algebra in terms of three free scalars (ϕ_i) and three (β_i,γ_i) ghost pairs, and propose vertex operators for the positive-helicity graviton primary G^{++}_Δ(z,z) as well as the scalar primary Φ_Δ(z,z), and compute their OPEs. These OPEs reproduce exactly those obtained from the bulk conformal gravity MHV amplitudes, providing a concrete celestial dual description of its MHV sector.

We propose a computationally efficient inferential procedure for longitudinal function-on-function regression. The method follows a marginal three-step approach: (1) fit massive pointwise longitudinal scalar-on-function regression models, (2) smooth the resulting estimates along the bivariate functional domain, and (3) compute confidence bands using either an analytic approach for Gaussian data or a cluster bootstrap for Gaussian or non-Gaussian data. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method achieves accurate estimation and valid inference, while substantially reducing computational burden compared to existing approaches. Methods are motivated by a physical activity intervention trial in older adults where high-dimensional wearable data were collected longitudinally across multiple visits. Our applications reveal significant increases in physical activity in the morning using interpersonal intervention strategies, but not intrapersonal strategies. The proposed methods are implemented in an R package.

Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework that provides statistically-guaranteed uncertainty estimates while enabling selective prediction in high-risk scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines a conformal threshold ensuring valid prediction sets with an abstention threshold optimized through ROC analysis, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees (\ge 1 - \alpha) while identifying unreliable predictions. Through comprehensive evaluation on CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K, and ModelNet40 datasets, we demonstrate superior robustness across camera and LiDAR modalities under varying environmental perturbations. The framework achieves exceptional detection performance (AUC: 0.993\to0.995) under severe conditions while maintaining high coverage (>90.0\%) and enabling adaptive abstention (13.5\%\to63.4\%\pm0.5) as environmental severity increases. For LiDAR-based perception, our approach demonstrates particularly strong performance, maintaining robust coverage (>84.5\%) while appropriately abstaining from unreliable predictions. Notably, the framework shows remarkable stability under heavy perturbations, with detection performance (AUC: 0.995\pm0.001) significantly outperforming existing methods across all modalities. Our unified approach bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical deployment needs, offering a robust solution for safety-critical autonomous systems operating in challenging real-world conditions.

Federated Learning (FL) is a machine learning framework where many clients collaboratively train models while keeping the training data decentralized. Despite recent advances in FL, the uncertainty quantification topic (UQ) remains partially addressed. Among UQ methods, conformal prediction (CP) approaches provides distribution-free guarantees under minimal assumptions. We develop a new federated conformal prediction method based on quantile regression and take into account privacy constraints. This method takes advantage of importance weighting to effectively address the label shift between agents and provides theoretical guarantees for both valid coverage of the prediction sets and differential privacy. Extensive experimental studies demonstrate that this method outperforms current competitors.

Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient protection or overly conservative and costly solutions. Recent approaches using conformal prediction construct data-driven uncertainty sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but they still fix coverage targets a priori and offer little guidance for selecting robustness levels. We propose a new framework that provides distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees on both miscoverage and regret for any family of robust predict-then-optimize policies. Our method constructs valid estimators that trace out the miscoverage-regret Pareto frontier, enabling decision-makers to reliably evaluate and calibrate robustness levels according to their cost-risk preferences. The framework is simple to implement, broadly applicable across classical optimization formulations, and achieves sharper finite-sample performance than existing approaches. These results offer the first principled data-driven methodology for guiding robustness selection and empower practitioners to balance robustness and conservativeness in high-stakes decision-making.

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly conservative, discarding many true-claims, or rely on adaptive error rates and simple linear models that fail to capture complex group structures. To address these challenges, we reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores. Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores, which in our experiments led to higher retention, while validity is preserved through group-conditional calibration. Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines. Our repository is available at https://github.com/MLAI-Yonsei/MACI

A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data without any inductive biases, but in practice, we often restrict the class of stochastic processes for the ease of estimation. One such restriction is the use of a finite-dimensional latent variable accounting for the uncertainty in the functions drawn from NPs. Some recent works show that this can be improved with more "data-driven" source of uncertainty such as bootstrapping. In this work, we take a different approach based on the martingale posterior, a recently developed alternative to Bayesian inference. For the martingale posterior, instead of specifying prior-likelihood pairs, a predictive distribution for future data is specified. Under specific conditions on the predictive distribution, it can be shown that the uncertainty in the generated future data actually corresponds to the uncertainty of the implicitly defined Bayesian posteriors. Based on this result, instead of assuming any form of the latent variables, we equip a NP with a predictive distribution implicitly defined with neural networks and use the corresponding martingale posteriors as the source of uncertainty. The resulting model, which we name as Martingale Posterior Neural Process (MPNP), is demonstrated to outperform baselines on various tasks.

Consistently checking the statistical significance of experimental results is one of the mandatory methodological steps to address the so-called "reproducibility crisis" in deep reinforcement learning. In this tutorial paper, we explain how the number of random seeds relates to the probabilities of statistical errors. For both the t-test and the bootstrap confidence interval test, we recall theoretical guidelines to determine the number of random seeds one should use to provide a statistically significant comparison of the performance of two algorithms. Finally, we discuss the influence of deviations from the assumptions usually made by statistical tests. We show that they can lead to inaccurate evaluations of statistical errors and provide guidelines to counter these negative effects. We make our code available to perform the tests.

Generating executable CAD programs from images requires alignment between visual geometry and symbolic program representations, a capability that current methods fail to learn reliably as design complexity increases. Existing fine-tuning approaches rely on either limited supervised datasets or expensive post-training pipelines, resulting in brittle systems that restrict progress in generative CAD design. We argue that the primary bottleneck lies not in model or algorithmic capacity, but in the scarcity of diverse training examples that align visual geometry with program syntax. This limitation is especially acute because the collection of diverse and verified engineering datasets is both expensive and difficult to scale, constraining the development of robust generative CAD models. We introduce Geometric Inference Feedback Tuning (GIFT), a data augmentation framework that leverages geometric feedback to turn test-time compute into a bootstrapped set of high-quality training samples. GIFT combines two mechanisms: Soft-Rejection Sampling (GIFT-REJECT), which retains diverse high-fidelity programs beyond exact ground-truth matches, and Failure-Driven Augmentation (GIFT-FAIL), which converts near-miss predictions into synthetic training examples that improve robustness on challenging geometries. By amortizing inference-time search into the model parameters, GIFT captures the benefits of test-time scaling while reducing inference compute by 80%. It improves mean IoU by 12% over a strong supervised baseline and remains competitive with more complex multimodal systems, without requiring additional human annotation or specialized architectures.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

We study the problem of optimizing biological sequences, e.g., proteins, DNA, and RNA, to maximize a black-box score function that is only evaluated in an offline dataset. We propose a novel solution, bootstrapped training of score-conditioned generator (BootGen) algorithm. Our algorithm repeats a two-stage process. In the first stage, our algorithm trains the biological sequence generator with rank-based weights to enhance the accuracy of sequence generation based on high scores. The subsequent stage involves bootstrapping, which augments the training dataset with self-generated data labeled by a proxy score function. Our key idea is to align the score-based generation with a proxy score function, which distills the knowledge of the proxy score function to the generator. After training, we aggregate samples from multiple bootstrapped generators and proxies to produce a diverse design. Extensive experiments show that our method outperforms competitive baselines on biological sequential design tasks. We provide reproducible source code: https://github.com/kaist-silab/bootgen{https://github.com/kaist-silab/bootgen}.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

In the past two years, several points of view have been proposed to address the question of the generalization of the theory of free probability to random tensors with different invariances, and it is unclear at this point whether they lead to the same notions of tensorial free cumulants and freeness. One way to approach this problem, developed by Collins, Gurau and the second named author for local unitary invariant random tensors, relies on finite size quantities involving averages over the invariance group, and whose asymptotics naturally possess the properties expected for tensorial generalizations of free cumulants of arbitrary orders. At this point, this approach has only been carried out for certain distributions, and for a subset of the moments that define such theories, and a more systematic and exhaustive study is lacking. This is the program initiated in this paper: we link this approach to the one proposed by Nechita and Park; extend a number of their results as well as those of the aforementioned paper to arbitrary orders of fluctuations, thereby generalizing higher order free cumulants; push further the study of distributions with larger invariance groups; detail the link with the asymptotics of the free-energies of the tensor HCIZ and BGW integrals; and provide formulae for tensorial free cumulants of products of tensors. Another important question is that of the definition of concrete distributions whose tensorial free-cumulants take non-trivial values. We compute the tensorial free cumulants for Gaussian random tensors with non-trivial covariances, and show that they provide such examples.

Microsimulation models used by ministries of finance and central banks rely on parametric processes for lifetime earnings that capture only first and second moments of the conditional distribution and miss long-range nonlinear structure. We propose SAGA, a decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular panel sequences, paired with a split conformal calibration wrapper that delivers individual-level prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees. Trained on the longitudinal Swedish LISA register over 1990 to 2022, comprising 2,143,817 individuals and 61,284,903 person-years, the model forecasts annual labor earnings at horizons of one to thirty years and aggregates them by Monte Carlo into present-discounted lifetime earnings distributions. Against the canonical Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song parametric process and tabular and recurrent baselines, SAGA reduces continuous ranked probability score by 31.9 percent at the ten-year horizon and mean absolute error by 37.7 percent at the twenty-year horizon. Conformal intervals achieve nominal coverage to within 0.4 percentage points marginally and within 2.4 percentage points on the worst-case demographic subgroup. The reconstructed lifetime earnings Gini coefficient is 0.327 against the partially observed truth of 0.341 and the GKOS estimate of 0.378. Model weights, calibration tables, and a synthetic equivalent dataset are released for replication outside the protected SCB MONA environment.

Prediction sets can wrap around any ML model to cover unknown test outcomes with a guaranteed probability. Yet, it remains unclear how to use them optimally for downstream decision-making. Here, we propose a decision-theoretic framework that seeks to minimize the expected loss (risk) against a worst-case distribution consistent with the prediction set's coverage guarantee. We first characterize the minimax optimal policy for a fixed prediction set, showing that it balances the worst-case loss inside the set with a penalty for potential losses outside the set. Building on this, we derive the optimal prediction set construction that minimizes the resulting robust risk subject to a coverage constraint. Finally, we introduce Risk-Optimal Conformal Prediction (ROCP), a practical algorithm that targets these risk-minimizing sets while maintaining finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage. Empirical evaluations on medical diagnosis and safety-critical decision-making tasks demonstrate that ROCP reduces critical mistakes compared to baselines, particularly when out-of-set errors are costly.

I examine some analytical properties of a nonlinear reaction-diffusion system that has been used to model the propagation of a wildfire. I establish global-in-time existence and uniqueness of bounded mild solutions to the Cauchy problem for this system given bounded initial data. In particular, this shows that the model does not allow for thermal blow-up. If the initial temperature and fuel density also satisfy certain integrability conditions, the L^2-norms of these global solutions are uniformly bounded in time. Additionally, I use a bootstrap argument to show that small initial temperatures give rise to solutions that decay to zero as time goes to infinity, proving the existence of initial states that do not develop into travelling combustion waves.

LLM-as-a-judge has become a promising paradigm for using large language models (LLMs) to evaluate natural language generation (NLG), but the uncertainty of its evaluation remains underexplored. This lack of reliability may limit its deployment in many applications. This work presents the first framework to analyze the uncertainty by offering a prediction interval of LLM-based scoring via conformal prediction. Conformal prediction constructs continuous prediction intervals from a single evaluation run, and we design an ordinal boundary adjustment for discrete rating tasks. We also suggest a midpoint-based score within the interval as a low-bias alternative to raw model score and weighted average. We perform extensive experiments and analysis, which show that conformal prediction can provide valid prediction interval with coverage guarantees. We also explore the usefulness of interval midpoint and judge reprompting for better judgment.

We reassess the realistic discovery reach of Solar-System experiments for dark energy (DE) and dark matter (DM), making explicit the bridge from cosmology-level linear responses to local, screened residuals. In scalar-tensor frameworks with a universal conformal coupling A(phi) and chameleon/Vainshtein screening, we map cosmological responses {mu(z,k),Sigma(z,k)} inferred by DESI and Euclid to thin-shell or Vainshtein residuals in deep Solar potentials Phi_N. We emphasize a two-branch strategy. In a detection-first branch, a verified local anomaly -- an Einstein equivalence principle (EEP) violation, a Shapiro-delay signal with |gamma-1|simfewtimes 10^{-6}, an AU-scale Yukawa tail, or a ultralight DM (ULDM) line in clocks/atom interferometers in space (AIS) -- triggers a joint refit of cosmology and Solar-System data under a common microphysical parameterization {V(phi),A(phi)}. In a guardrail branch, Solar-System tests enforce constraints (EEP; PPN parameters gamma,beta; and dot G/G) and close unscreened or weakly screened corners indicated by cosmology. We forecast, per conjunction, |gamma-1|lesssim (2-5)times 10^{-6} (Ka-/X-band or optical Shapiro), eta_{EEP}sim (1--10)times 10^{-17} (drag-free AIS), |dot G/G|sim(3-5)times10^{-15},yr^{-1} (sub-mm-class LLR), a uniform ~2x tightening of AU-scale Yukawa/DM-density bounds, and (3-10)times improved ULDM-coupling reach from clocks. For a conformal benchmark, mu_{ lin,0}=0.10 implies chisimeq mu_{lin,0/2} and a Sun thin shell Delta R/Rlesssim (1/3chi)|gamma-1|/2=2.4times 10^{-3} at |gamma-1|=5times 10^{-6}; Vainshtein screening at 1 AU yields |gamma-1|lesssim 10^{-11}, naturally below near-term reach. We recommend a cost-effective guardrail+discovery portfolio with explicit triggers for escalation to dedicated missions.

Large language models (LLMs) have pushed the limits of natural language understanding and exhibited excellent problem-solving ability. Despite the great success, most existing open-source LLMs (\eg, LLaMA-2) are still far away from satisfactory for solving mathematical problem due to the complex reasoning procedures. To bridge this gap, we propose MetaMath, a fine-tuned language model that specializes in mathematical reasoning. Specifically, we start by bootstrapping mathematical questions by rewriting the question from multiple perspectives without extra knowledge, which results in a new dataset called {MetaMathQA}. Then we fine-tune the LLaMA-2 models on MetaMathQA. Experimental results on two popular benchmarks (\ie, GSM8K and MATH) for mathematical reasoning demonstrate that MetaMath outperforms a suite of open-source LLMs by a significant margin. Our MetaMath-7B model achieves 66.4% on GSM8K and 19.4% on MATH, exceeding the state-of-the-art models of the same size by 11.5% and 8.7%. Particularly, {MetaMath-70B} achieves an accuracy of 82.3% on {GSM8K}, slightly better than {GPT-3.5-Turbo}. We release the {MetaMathQA} dataset, the {MetaMath} models with different model sizes and the training code for public use.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

We revisit axion monodromy inflation in the context of UV-complete theories and point out that its cosmological observables are sensitive to heavy fields with masses far above the Hubble scale, such as the moduli of flux compactifications. By studying a string-inspired two-field extension of axion monodromy, we reveal that the oscillatory modulation of the axion potential leads to continuous excitation of heavy fields during inflation when the modulation frequency exceeds the field masses. This finding challenges the conventional single-field description, as heavy moduli cannot be simply integrated out. Using a full bootstrap analysis, we demonstrate that this mechanism produces cosmological collider signals that bypass the usual Boltzmann suppression for heavy masses. Specifically, we identify detectably large signatures of heavy moduli in the primordial bispectrum, offering a promising avenue for probing high-energy physics through cosmological observations.

Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this causal discovery learning task have shown considerable skill, notably the specific time-series adaptations of the popular conditional independence-based learning framework. However, uncertainty estimation is challenging for conditional independence-based methods. Here, we introduce a novel bootstrap approach designed for time series causal discovery that preserves the temporal dependencies and lag structure. It can be combined with a range of time series causal discovery methods and provides a measure of confidence for the links of the time series graphs. Furthermore, next to confidence estimation, an aggregation, also called bagging, of the bootstrapped graphs by majority voting results in bagged causal discovery methods. In this work, we combine this approach with the state-of-the-art conditional-independence-based algorithm PCMCI+. With extensive numerical experiments we empirically demonstrate that, in addition to providing confidence measures for links, Bagged-PCMCI+ improves in precision and recall as compared to its base algorithm PCMCI+, at the cost of higher computational demands. These statistical performance improvements are especially pronounced in the more challenging settings (short time sample size, large number of variables, high autocorrelation). Our bootstrap approach can also be combined with other time series causal discovery algorithms and can be of considerable use in many real-world applications.

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.

We develop an asymptotic perturbation theory for the large logarithmic behavior of the non-linear integro-differential equation describing the soft correlations of QCD jet measurements, the Banfi-Marchesini-Smye (BMS) equation. This equation captures the late-time evolution of radiating color dipoles after a hard collision. This allows us to prove that at large values of the control variable (the non-global logarithm, a function of the infra-red energy scales associated with distinct hard jets in an event), the distribution has a gaussian tail. We compute the decay width analytically, giving a closed form expression, and find it to be jet geometry independent, up to the number of legs of the dipole in the active jet. Enabling the asymptotic expansion is the correct perturbative seed, where we perturb around an anzats encoding formally no real emissions, an intuition motivated by the buffer region found in jet dynamics. This must be supplemented with the correct application of the BFKL approximation to the BMS equation in collinear limits. Comparing to the asymptotics of the conformally related evolution equation encountered in small-x physics, the Balitisky-Kovchegov (BK) equation, we find that the asymptotic form of the non-global logarithms directly maps to the black-disc unitarity limit of the BK equation, despite the contrasting physical pictures. Indeed, we recover the equations of saturation physics in the final state dynamics of QCD.

Singular limits for the following indirect signalling chemotaxis system align* \left\{ array{lllllll} \partial_t n = \Delta n - \nabla \cdot (n \nabla c ) & in \Omega\times(0,\infty) , \varepsilon \partial_t c = \Delta c - c + w & in \Omega\times(0,\infty), \varepsilon \partial_t w = \tau \Delta w - w + n & in \Omega\times (0,\infty), \partial_\nu n = \partial_\nu c = \partial_\nu w = 0, &on \partial\Omega\times (0,\infty) %(n,c,w)_{t=0} = (n_0,c_0,w_0) & on \Omega, array \right. align* are investigated. More precisely, we study parabolic-elliptic simplification, or PES, varepsilonto 0^+ with fixed tau>0 up to the critical dimension N=4, and indirect-direct simplification, or IDS, (varepsilon,tau)to (0^+,0^+) up to the critical dimension N=2. These are relevant in biological situations where the signalling process is on a much faster time scale compared to the species diffusion and all interactions. Showing singular limits in critical dimensions is challenging. To deal with the PES, we carefully combine the entropy function, an Adam-type inequality, the regularisation of slow evolution, and an energy equation method to obtain strong convergence in representative spaces. For the IDS, a bootstrap argument concerning the L^p-energy function is devised, which allows us to obtain suitable uniform bounds for the singular limits. Moreover, in both scenarios, we also present the convergence rates, where the effect of the initial layer and the convergence to the critical manifold are also revealed.

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic calibration of neural networks. We also analyze the performance of recalibration, conformal, and regularization methods to enhance probabilistic calibration. Additionally, we introduce novel differentiable recalibration and regularization methods, uncovering new insights into their effectiveness. Our findings reveal that regularization methods offer a favorable tradeoff between calibration and sharpness. Post-hoc methods exhibit superior probabilistic calibration, which we attribute to the finite-sample coverage guarantee of conformal prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that quantile recalibration can be considered as a specific case of conformal prediction. Our study is fully reproducible and implemented in a common code base for fair comparisons.

Existing research on Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) primarily focuses on improving overall question-answering accuracy, often overlooking the quality of sub-claims within generated responses. Recent methods that attempt to improve RAG trustworthiness, such as through auto-evaluation metrics, lack probabilistic guarantees or require ground truth answers. To address these limitations, we propose Conformal-RAG, a novel framework inspired by recent applications of conformal prediction (CP) on large language models (LLMs). Conformal-RAG leverages CP and internal information from the RAG mechanism to offer statistical guarantees on response quality. It ensures group-conditional coverage spanning multiple sub-domains without requiring manual labelling of conformal sets, making it suitable for complex RAG applications. Compared to existing RAG auto-evaluation methods, Conformal-RAG offers statistical guarantees on the quality of refined sub-claims, ensuring response reliability without the need for ground truth answers. Additionally, our experiments demonstrate that by leveraging information from the RAG system, Conformal-RAG retains up to 60\% more high-quality sub-claims from the response compared to direct applications of CP to LLMs, while maintaining the same reliability guarantee.

Optimization analyses for cross-entropy training rely on local Taylor models of the loss to predict whether a proposed step will decrease the objective. These surrogates are reliable only inside the Taylor convergence radius of the true loss along the update direction. That radius is set not by real-line curvature alone but by the nearest complex singularity. For cross-entropy, the softmax partition function F=sum_j exp(z_j) has complex zeros -- ``ghosts of softmax'' -- that induce logarithmic singularities in the loss and cap this radius. To make this geometry usable, we derive closed-form expressions under logit linearization along the proposed update direction. In the binary case, the exact radius is ρ^*=δ^2+ π^2/Δ_a. In the multiclass case, we obtain the lower bound ρ_a=π/Δ_a, where Δ_a=max_k a_k-min_k a_k is the spread of directional logit derivatives a_k=nabla z_kcdot v. This bound costs one Jacobian-vector product and reveals what makes a step fragile: samples that are both near a decision flip and highly sensitive to the proposed direction tighten the radius. The normalized step size r=τ/ρ_a separates safe from dangerous updates. Across six tested architectures and multiple step directions, no model fails for r<1, yet collapse appears once rge 1. Temperature scaling confirms the mechanism: normalizing by ρ_a shrinks the onset-threshold spread from standard deviation 0.992 to 0.164. A controller that enforces τleρ_a survives learning-rate spikes up to 10{,} 000times in our tests, where gradient clipping still collapses. Together, these results identify a geometric constraint on cross-entropy optimization that operates through Taylor convergence rather than Hessian curvature.

Large language models (LLMs), such as o1 from OpenAI, have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities. o1 generates a long chain-of-thought (LongCoT) before answering a question. LongCoT allows LLMs to analyze problems, devise plans, reflect, and backtrack effectively. These actions empower LLM to solve complex problems. After the release of o1, many teams have attempted to replicate its LongCoT and reasoning capabilities. In terms of methods, they primarily rely on knowledge distillation with data from existing models with LongCoT capacities (e.g., OpenAI-o1, Qwen-QwQ, DeepSeek-R1-Preview), leaving significant uncertainties on systematically developing such reasoning abilities. In terms of data domains, these works focus narrowly on math while a few others include coding, limiting their generalizability. This paper introduces a novel approach to enable LLM's LongCoT capacity without distillation from o1-like models or expensive human annotations, where we bootstrap LongCoT (BOLT) from a standard instruct model. BOLT involves three stages: 1) LongCoT data bootstrapping with in-context learning on a standard instruct model; 2) LongCoT supervised finetuning; 3) online training to further refine LongCoT capacities. In BOLT, only a few in-context examples need to be constructed during the bootstrapping stage; in our experiments, we created 10 examples, demonstrating the feasibility of this approach. We use Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct to bootstrap LongCoT and apply our method to various model scales (7B, 8B, 70B). We achieve impressive performance on a variety of benchmarks, Arena-Hard, MT-Bench, WildBench, ZebraLogic, MATH500, which evaluate diverse task-solving and reasoning capabilities.

Programs are an increasingly popular representation for visual data, exposing compact, interpretable structure that supports manipulation. Visual programs are usually written in domain-specific languages (DSLs). Finding "good" programs, that only expose meaningful degrees of freedom, requires access to a DSL with a "good" library of functions, both of which are typically authored by domain experts. We present ShapeCoder, the first system capable of taking a dataset of shapes, represented with unstructured primitives, and jointly discovering (i) useful abstraction functions and (ii) programs that use these abstractions to explain the input shapes. The discovered abstractions capture common patterns (both structural and parametric) across the dataset, so that programs rewritten with these abstractions are more compact, and expose fewer degrees of freedom. ShapeCoder improves upon previous abstraction discovery methods, finding better abstractions, for more complex inputs, under less stringent input assumptions. This is principally made possible by two methodological advancements: (a) a shape to program recognition network that learns to solve sub-problems and (b) the use of e-graphs, augmented with a conditional rewrite scheme, to determine when abstractions with complex parametric expressions can be applied, in a tractable manner. We evaluate ShapeCoder on multiple datasets of 3D shapes, where primitive decompositions are either parsed from manual annotations or produced by an unsupervised cuboid abstraction method. In all domains, ShapeCoder discovers a library of abstractions that capture high-level relationships, remove extraneous degrees of freedom, and achieve better dataset compression compared with alternative approaches. Finally, we investigate how programs rewritten to use discovered abstractions prove useful for downstream tasks.

We present the design of a flexible quantum-chemical method development framework, which supports employing any type of basis function. This design has been implemented in the light-weight program package molsturm, yielding a basis-function-independent self-consistent field scheme. Versatile interfaces, making use of open standards like python, mediate the integration of molsturm with existing third-party packages. In this way both rapid extension of the present set of methods for electronic structure calculations as well as adding new basis function types can be readily achieved. This makes molsturm well-suitable for testing novel approaches for discretising the electronic wave function and allows comparing them to existing methods using the same software stack. This is illustrated by two examples, an implementation of coupled-cluster doubles as well as a gradient-free geometry optimisation, where in both cases, an arbitrary basis functions could be used. molsturm is open-source and can be obtained from https://molsturm.org.

About 90% of the computing resources available to the LHCb experiment has been spent to produce simulated data samples for Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. The upgraded LHCb detector will be able to collect larger data samples, requiring many more simulated events to analyze the data to be collected in Run 3. Simulation is a key necessity of analysis to interpret signal, reject background and measure efficiencies. The needed simulation will far exceed the pledged resources, requiring an evolution in technologies and techniques to produce these simulated data samples. In this contribution, we discuss Lamarr, a Gaudi-based framework to speed-up the simulation production parameterizing both the detector response and the reconstruction algorithms of the LHCb experiment. Deep Generative Models powered by several algorithms and strategies are employed to effectively parameterize the high-level response of the single components of the LHCb detector, encoding within neural networks the experimental errors and uncertainties introduced in the detection and reconstruction phases. Where possible, models are trained directly on real data, statistically subtracting any background components by applying appropriate reweighing procedures. Embedding Lamarr in the general LHCb Gauss Simulation framework allows to combine its execution with any of the available generators in a seamless way. The resulting software package enables a simulation process independent of the detailed simulation used to date.

This paper argues for the widest possible use of bootstrap confidence intervals for comparing NLP system performances instead of the state-of-the-art status (SOTA) and statistical significance testing. Their main benefits are to draw attention to the difference in performance between two systems and to help assessing the degree of superiority of one system over another. Two cases studies, one comparing several systems and the other based on a K-fold cross-validation procedure, illustrate these benefits. A python module for obtaining these confidence intervals as well as a second function implementing the Fisher-Pitman test for paired samples are freely available on PyPi.

We set up precision holography for the non-conformal branes preserving 16 supersymmetries. The near-horizon limit of all such p-brane solutions with p \leq 4, including the case of fundamental string solutions, is conformal to AdS_{p+2} x S^{8-p} with a linear dilaton. We develop holographic renormalization for all these cases. In particular, we obtain the most general asymptotic solutions with appropriate Dirichlet boundary conditions, find the corresponding counterterms and compute the holographic 1-point functions, all in complete generality and at the full non-linear level. The result for the stress energy tensor properly defines the notion of mass for backgrounds with such asymptotics. The analysis is done both in the original formulation of the method and also using a radial Hamiltonian analysis. The latter formulation exhibits most clearly the existence of an underlying generalized conformal structure. In the cases of Dp-branes, the corresponding dual boundary theory, the maximally supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory SYM_{p+1}, indeed exhibits the generalized conformal structure found at strong coupling. We compute the holographic 2-point functions of the stress energy tensor and gluon operator and show they satisfy the expected Ward identities and the constraints of generalized conformal structure. The holographic results are also manifestly compatible with the M-theory uplift, with the asymptotic solutions, counterterms, one and two point functions etc of the IIA F1 and D4 appropriately descending from those of M2 and M5 branes, respectively. We present a few applications including the computation of condensates in Witten's model of holographic YM_4 theory.

The recently proposed SparseFormer architecture provides an alternative approach to visual understanding by utilizing a significantly lower number of visual tokens via adjusting RoIs, greatly reducing computational costs while still achieving promising performance. However, training SparseFormers from scratch is still expensive, and scaling up the number of parameters can be challenging. In this paper, we propose to bootstrap SparseFormers from ViT-based vision foundation models in a simple and efficient way. Since the majority of SparseFormer blocks are the standard transformer ones, we can inherit weights from large-scale pre-trained vision transformers and freeze them as much as possible. Therefore, we only need to train the SparseFormer-specific lightweight focusing transformer to adjust token RoIs and fine-tune a few early pre-trained blocks to align the final token representation. In such a way, we can bootstrap SparseFormer architectures from various large-scale pre-trained models (e.g., IN-21K pre-trained AugRegs or CLIPs) using a rather smaller amount of training samples (e.g., IN-1K) and without labels or captions within just a few hours. As a result, the bootstrapped unimodal SparseFormer (from AugReg-ViT-L/16-384) can reach 84.9% accuracy on IN-1K with only 49 tokens, and the multimodal SparseFormer from CLIPs also demonstrates notable zero-shot performance with highly reduced computational cost without seeing any caption during the bootstrapping procedure. In addition, CLIP-bootstrapped SparseFormers, which align the output space with language without seeing a word, can serve as efficient vision encoders in multimodal large language models. Code will be publicly available at https://github.com/showlab/sparseformer

The learning and deployment of long-LLMs remains a challenging problem despite recent progresses. In this work, we argue that the long-LLMs are not a necessity to solve long-context tasks, as common long-context tasks are short-context solvable, i.e. they can be solved by purely working with oracle short-contexts within the long-context tasks' inputs. On top of this argument, we propose a framework called LC-Boost (Long-Context Bootstrapper), which enables a short-LLM to address the long-context tasks in a bootstrapping manner. In our framework, the short-LLM prompts itself to reason for two critical decisions: 1) how to access to the appropriate part of context within the input, 2) how to make effective use of the accessed context. By adaptively accessing and utilizing the context based on the presented tasks, LC-Boost can serve as a general framework to handle diversified long-context processing problems. We comprehensively evaluate different types of tasks from popular long-context benchmarks, where LC-Boost is able to achieve a substantially improved performance with a much smaller consumption of resource.

We study the scalar curvature of the Fisher information metric on the microscopic coupling-parameter manifold of lattice spin models at criticality. For a d-dimensional lattice with periodic boundary conditions and n = L^d sites, the Fisher manifold has m = d cdot n dimensions (one per bond), and we find |R(J_c)| sim n^{d_R} with d_R = (dν+ 2η)/(dν+ η), where ν and η are the correlation-length and anomalous-dimension critical exponents. For 2D Ising (ν= 1, η= 1/4), this predicts d_R = 10/9, confirmed by exact transfer-matrix computations (L = 6--9: d_R = 1.1115 pm 0.0002) and multi-seed MCMC through L = 24. For 3D Ising (ν= 0.630, η= 0.0363), the prediction d_R = 1.019 is consistent with MCMC on L^3 tori up to L = 10 (power-law fit: d_R = 1.040). For 2D Potts q = 3 (predicted 33/29 approx 1.138), FFT-MCMC through L = 40 shows d_eff oscillating non-monotonically around sim 1.20, consistent with O(1/(ln L)^2) logarithmic corrections. For q = 4 (predicted 22/19), effective exponents oscillate with strong logarithmic corrections. The Ricci decomposition identity R_3 = -R_1/2, R_4 = -R_2/2 holds to 5--6 digits for all models. This exponent is distinct from Ruppeiner thermodynamic curvature and reflects the collective geometry of the growing Fisher manifold. We provide falsification criteria and predictions for additional universality classes.

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

Conventional multi-label classification (MLC) methods assume that all samples are fully labeled and identically distributed. Unfortunately, this assumption is unrealistic in large-scale MLC data that has long-tailed (LT) distribution and partial labels (PL). To address the problem, we introduce a novel task, Partial labeling and Long-Tailed Multi-Label Classification (PLT-MLC), to jointly consider the above two imperfect learning environments. Not surprisingly, we find that most LT-MLC and PL-MLC approaches fail to solve the PLT-MLC, resulting in significant performance degradation on the two proposed PLT-MLC benchmarks. Therefore, we propose an end-to-end learning framework: COrrection rightarrow ModificatIon rightarrow balanCe, abbreviated as \method{}. Our bootstrapping philosophy is to simultaneously correct the missing labels (Correction) with convinced prediction confidence over a class-aware threshold and to learn from these recall labels during training. We next propose a novel multi-focal modifier loss that simultaneously addresses head-tail imbalance and positive-negative imbalance to adaptively modify the attention to different samples (Modification) under the LT class distribution. In addition, we develop a balanced training strategy by distilling the model's learning effect from head and tail samples, and thus design a balanced classifier (Balance) conditioned on the head and tail learning effect to maintain stable performance for all samples. Our experimental study shows that the proposed significantly outperforms general MLC, LT-MLC and PL-MLC methods in terms of effectiveness and robustness on our newly created PLT-MLC datasets.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

We generalize the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm with a stack of neural network layers and evaluate its ability to sample from different topologies in a two dimensional lattice gauge theory. We demonstrate that our model is able to successfully mix between modes of different topologies, significantly reducing the computational cost required to generated independent gauge field configurations. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/saforem2/l2hmc-qcd .

This paper establishes a mathematically precise definition of dataset poisoning attack and proves that the very act of effectively poisoning a dataset ensures that the attack can be effectively detected. On top of a mathematical guarantee that dataset poisoning is identifiable by a new statistical test that we call the Conformal Separability Test, we provide experimental evidence that we can adequately detect poisoning attempts in the real world.

Effective LLM training depends on predictable scaling of key quantities -- such as final loss and optimal hyperparameters -- with model and dataset size. Qiu et al. (2025) recently showed that this predictability can extend beyond scalars: whole training loss curves can *collapse* onto a universal trajectory after a simple normalization. What remains unclear is whether this phenomenon persists for LLM families trained under *practical scaling recipes*, where width, depth, learning rate, batch size, and weight decay are scaled jointly. We show that it does: loss curves collapse across scales precisely when optimization hyperparameters are set optimally for the given data budget, in accordance with recent empirical scaling laws. Collapse therefore emerges as a signature of compute-efficient training. We demonstrate two applications at scale: (1) deviation-from-collapse provides a sensitive, early diagnostic of training pathologies, and (2) predictability of collapsed curves enables early stopping in large-scale hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we train a competitive LLM family, *Celerity*, using these insights, establishing collapse as an effective tool for developing efficient LLMs.

DNA-synthesis providers screen incoming orders by searching the requested sequence against curated hazard lists. We show that this baseline collapses to a 100% false-flag rate when the hazardous sequence comes from a taxonomic family absent from the reference set: under Conformal Risk Control's certified miss-rate constraint, a low-discrimination signal forces the threshold below the entire test-benign mass. We compose three signals derived from a synthesis order's public annotation: k-mer Jaccard similarity to known toxins, the trimmed-mean score of a five-LLM judge panel, and cosine similarity to clustered embedding centroids. Fused under a monotone logistic aggregator and calibrated by Conformal Risk Control, the resulting screener certifies E[FNR] le α. Across ten leave-one-taxonomic-family-out folds at α=0.05 on UniProt KW-0800 reviewed toxins, the calibrated screener achieves 0% test miss rate on every fold and 0% test false-flag rate on nine of ten folds. The bound's finite-sample slack 1/(n_{cal}+1) caps the certifiable miss rate at 1.77% on our 200-hazard subsample; reaching procurement-grade α=10^{-3} requires an 18times larger calibration set, which the full reviewed UniProt KW-0800 corpus is large enough to deliver. The binding constraint on certifiable DNA-synthesis screening is calibration data, not algorithms. Code: https://github.com/najmulhasan-code/crc-screen

We propose PyTorchGeoNodes, a differentiable module for reconstructing 3D objects from images using interpretable shape programs. In comparison to traditional CAD model retrieval methods, the use of shape programs for 3D reconstruction allows for reasoning about the semantic properties of reconstructed objects, editing, low memory footprint, etc. However, the utilization of shape programs for 3D scene understanding has been largely neglected in past works. As our main contribution, we enable gradient-based optimization by introducing a module that translates shape programs designed in Blender, for example, into efficient PyTorch code. We also provide a method that relies on PyTorchGeoNodes and is inspired by Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to jointly optimize discrete and continuous parameters of shape programs and reconstruct 3D objects for input scenes. In our experiments, we apply our algorithm to reconstruct 3D objects in the ScanNet dataset and evaluate our results against CAD model retrieval-based reconstructions. Our experiments indicate that our reconstructions match well the input scenes while enabling semantic reasoning about reconstructed objects.

Machine learning models are often tuned by nesting optimization of model weights inside the optimization of hyperparameters. We give a method to collapse this nested optimization into joint stochastic optimization of weights and hyperparameters. Our process trains a neural network to output approximately optimal weights as a function of hyperparameters. We show that our technique converges to locally optimal weights and hyperparameters for sufficiently large hypernetworks. We compare this method to standard hyperparameter optimization strategies and demonstrate its effectiveness for tuning thousands of hyperparameters.

We present a neural network emulator to constrain the thermal parameters of the intergalactic medium (IGM) at 5.4z6.0 using the Lyman-displaystylealpha (Lydisplaystylealpha) forest flux auto-correlation function. Our auto-differentiable JAX-based framework accelerates the surrogate model generation process using approximately 100 sparsely sampled Nyx hydrodynamical simulations with varying combinations of thermal parameters, i.e., the temperature at mean density T_{{0}}, the slope of the temperaturedisplaystyle-density relation displaystylegamma, and the mean transmission flux langle{F}{rangle}. We show that this emulator has a typical accuracy of 1.0% across the specified redshift range. Bayesian inference of the IGM thermal parameters, incorporating emulator uncertainty propagation, is further expedited using NumPyro Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We compare both the inference results and computational cost of our framework with the traditional nearest-neighbor interpolation approach applied to the same set of mock Lyalpha flux. By examining the credibility contours of the marginalized posteriors for T_{{0}},gamma,and{langle}{F}{rangle} obtained using the emulator, the statistical reliability of measurements is established through inference on 100 realistic mock data sets of the auto-correlation function.

This paper presents a new approach for assessing uncertainty in machine translation by simultaneously evaluating translation quality and providing a reliable confidence score. Our approach utilizes conformal predictive distributions to produce prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, meaning that for any given significance level epsilon, we can expect the true quality score of a translation to fall out of the interval at a rate of 1-epsilon. In this paper, we demonstrate how our method outperforms a simple, but effective baseline on six different language pairs in terms of coverage and sharpness. Furthermore, we validate that our approach requires the data exchangeability assumption to hold for optimal performance.

We use the extrapolate dictionary to revisit the spectrum of operators in Celestial CFT. Under the Celestial CFT map, each state in the 4D Hilbert space should map to one in the 2D Hilbert space. This implies that, beyond the familiar single particle states/operators, there should be multiparticle operators appearing in the celestial OPE. We extend the existing flat-space dictionary by constructing composite primaries from both Carrollian and Celestial perspectives. In the process, we demonstrate some subtleties in deriving the Poincaré primary condition from the Carrollian limit, clarify the compatibility of principal series representations with highest weight representations and unitarity in Celestial CFT, and discuss how the celestial OPE block expansion emerges from a 2D CFT standpoint.

We argue that the Declarative Self-improving Python (DSPy) optimizers are a way to align the large language model (LLM) prompts and their evaluations to the human annotations. We present a comparative analysis of five teleprompter algorithms, namely, Cooperative Prompt Optimization (COPRO), Multi-Stage Instruction Prompt Optimization (MIPRO), BootstrapFewShot, BootstrapFewShot with Optuna, and K-Nearest Neighbor Few Shot, within the DSPy framework with respect to their ability to align with human evaluations. As a concrete example, we focus on optimizing the prompt to align hallucination detection (using LLM as a judge) to human annotated ground truth labels for a publicly available benchmark dataset. Our experiments demonstrate that optimized prompts can outperform various benchmark methods to detect hallucination, and certain telemprompters outperform the others in at least these experiments.

Meta-learning empowers artificial intelligence to increase its efficiency by learning how to learn. Unlocking this potential involves overcoming a challenging meta-optimisation problem. We propose an algorithm that tackles this problem by letting the meta-learner teach itself. The algorithm first bootstraps a target from the meta-learner, then optimises the meta-learner by minimising the distance to that target under a chosen (pseudo-)metric. Focusing on meta-learning with gradients, we establish conditions that guarantee performance improvements and show that the metric can control meta-optimisation. Meanwhile, the bootstrapping mechanism can extend the effective meta-learning horizon without requiring backpropagation through all updates. We achieve a new state-of-the art for model-free agents on the Atari ALE benchmark and demonstrate that it yields both performance and efficiency gains in multi-task meta-learning. Finally, we explore how bootstrapping opens up new possibilities and find that it can meta-learn efficient exploration in an epsilon-greedy Q-learning agent, without backpropagating through the update rule.

We investigate the anomaly-induced activation of a gauge-invariant scalar degree of freedom in General Relativity, the conformalon mode, directly at the level of \(2\to2\) scattering amplitudes. The analysis couples anomalous three-point functions of conformal sectors, involving gravitons \((TTT)\) and Abelian gauge currents \((TJJ)\), through single-graviton exchange derived from the quadratic expansion of the Einstein--Hilbert action. Unlike related treatments based on the nonlocal anomaly action, these interactions are suppressed by the Planck scale. We show that the conformalon, invariant under linearized diffeomorphisms, admits an interpretation as an effective scalar correction to scattering amplitudes, both in virtual exchange channels and in effective real-emission processes. Around flat space, this behaviour arises from anomaly-induced nonlocal massless insertions on the external graviton and photon legs of the three-point functions, sewn through the scalar component of the graviton propagator in de Donder gauge. The resulting anomaly-mediated \(4\)-point interaction reduces to contact terms, with the Planck mass setting the suppression scale. The construction consistently matches the spin decomposition of flat-space conformal Ward identities in momentum space, which determine the vertices, with the corresponding spin decomposition of the graviton propagator. In the eikonal limit, these interactions generate contact corrections to the leading logarithmic phase in impact-parameter space. We further show that anomaly-mediated \(2\to2\) graviton amplitudes associated with the virtual exchange of such modes exhibit a characteristic double-copy structure.

For a family of two-matrix models \[ 1{2} Tr(A^2+B^2) - g{4} Tr(A^4+B^4) - cases h{2} Tr( A BA B) \\ h{4} Tr( A BA B+ ABBA ) \\ h{2} Tr( A B BA ) cases \] with hermitian A and B, we provide, in each case, a Monte Carlo estimate of the boundary of the maximal convergence domain in the (h,g)-plane. The results are discussed comparing with exact solutions (in agreement with the only analytically solved case) and phase diagrams obtained by means of the functional renormalization group.